RUSSIA: State Duma Passes Bill to Amend Federal Budget
May-29 07:24
- Kommersant report that Russia's State Duma passed a bill to amend the federal budget in the first reading on Wednesday. It cuts the revenue projection for 2025 by 4.5% while increasing the spending plan by 2%. The need to amend the budget confirmed the state treasury's continued heavy dependence on oil prices, the drop in which has nearly tripled the anticipated deficit in 2025 to RUB 3.8trln, or 1.7% of GDP.
- Gas production in Russia rose 2% Y/Y to 55.9bcm in April after declining for three months, Vedomosti report citing Rosstat data. Gas production in the first four months of 2025 slumped 4% Y/Y due to a warm winter and the end of gas transit through Ukraine. Meanwhile, LNG production in Russia dropped 5% in the four months, including 6% in April alone.
- The Bank of Russia reports weekly gold and FX reserves data this afternoon. No other data releases are scheduled for today, or for the remainder of the week.
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EQUITIES: The Banking sector leads in Europe
Apr-29 07:20
- The Banking sector (SX7E) leads in Europe, its best level since the 2nd April, and immediate resistance comes at 190.12, the April high.
- Estoxx futures (VGM5) is in turn underpinned, but trades in a small range and still short of the 5150.00 level, this was Yesterday's high, and best print since the 4th April.
EGB SYNDICATION: Finland New 10y Sep-35 RFGB: Guidance
Apr-29 07:19
- EUR Benchmark Long 10Y Fixed (Sept. 15, 2035) MS+54 Area
- Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA, short first
- Issuer: Finland Government Bond (RFGB)
- Ratings: Aa1/AA+ (Moody's/Fitch)
- Format: Reg S CAT1, registered, senior unsecured, 144a eligible, CAC, 0% rw
- Settlement: May 7, 2025
- Timing: May price today
- ISIN: FI4000587415
- Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), Citi, CA-CIB, GS, Nordea
Details as per Bloomberg
STIR: Limited Reaction In ECB Implied Rates To Spanish Data Releases
Apr-29 07:18
There was a fairly limited reaction in ECB implied rates to the firmer-than-expected Spanish inflation data, which was offset somewhat by a weaker-than-expected Q1 flash GDP print. Meanwhile, Executive Board member Cipollone has struck a characteristically dovish tone in latest comments.
- ECB-dated OIS continue to price 64bps of easing through year-end. We wrote in our Eurozone inflation preview (here) that the April flash HICP round is not expected to have a material impact on market easing expectations, given the focus on tariff-related growth concerns. This also downplays the immediate importance of the Q1 flash GDP data.
- This morning, ECB’s Kazaks suggested sequential rate cuts can continue, though yesterday he pushed back on taking rates below neutral (we assume he means the ECB’s lower bound of 1.75%).
- OIS essentially fully price a 25bp cut through June, with 14bps of sequential cuts priced through July.
- Euribor futures are little changed through the blues.
- The ECB’s Consumer Inflation Expectations survey is due at 0900BST/1000CET, alongside March money supply/lending data. The EC’s consumer and business survey lands at 1000BST.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jun-25 | 1.923 | -24.4 |
| Jul-25 | 1.785 | -38.2 |
| Sep-25 | 1.631 | -53.6 |
| Oct-25 | 1.578 | -58.9 |
| Dec-25 | 1.522 | -64.5 |
| Feb-26 | 1.514 | -65.3 |
| Mar-26 | 1.510 | -65.7 |
| Apr-26 | 1.522 | -64.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
