US: Speaker Johnson To Hold Crunch Meeting With Dissenting Republicans
May-15 13:59
House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) is shortly due to hold a crucial meeting with representatives of the so-called SALT caucus, the handful of Republican lawmakers from blue states who are calling for the GOP to lift the State and Local Tax deduction cap above the $30,000 level written into the Republican tax bill.
- The meeting is also expected to include members of the hardline House Freedom Caucus. The group objects to raising the SALT cap and has separate grievances with the Medicaid reform in the House Energy and Commerce Committee's reconciliation bill.
- Conservatives believe Medicaid reform falls short of the root-and-branch overhaul required to address the federal deficit. They also believe that language that delays the implementation of work requirements for Medicaid obscures the benefits of the bill.
- Rep Ralph Norman (R-SC), who sits on the powerful House Rules Committee, said: “How is that a cut? How is that meeting the intent of the cuts? Why are they waiting? You got to do it now,”
- Johnson is cognizant that deeper cuts to Medicaid are likely to be rejected by the Senate and moderates in his own conference. Expect President Trump to insert himself into the dispute at some point today or tomorrow to nudge conservatives towards backing the package as he has done successfully during previous legislative standoffs.
- Punchbowl notes on SALT Republicans: “Let’s put it plainly: Moderates always fold. The GOP leadership knows that. And they’re expecting it once again this time around.”
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EQUITY TECHS: S&P E-Minis Trend Needle Points South
Apr-15 13:53
- A bearish medium-term threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present.
- A broader reversal in sentiment unfolded between November and February - a double top reversal pattern clearly reflects this shift in sentiment.
- The pattern was confirmed in early March when price traded through 5864.25, the Jan 13 low and the mid-point of the double top pattern.
- The recovery between Mar 13 - 25 is known as a ‘return move’ - a price movement that usually occurs following the break of a key price point or the confirmation of a reversal signal or pattern. The fact that the move higher stalled ahead of the mid-point, reinforces the significance of the reversal pattern and strengthens bearish conditions.
- Furthermore, moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend and bearish market sentiment.
- A key resistance exists between the 20- and 50-day EMAs. While this resistance zone remains intact, the recovery since the Apr 7 low appears corrective.
- These technical developments suggest the primary trend remains bearish and that the contract is likely to retest its recent lows.
- Key medium-term support levels to monitor are:
- 4832.00 - the Apr 7 low.
- 4702.00 - Low Jan 5 2024 (cont).
- 3. 4518.81 - 61.8% of the Oct 2022 - Feb 2025 bull cycle.
CANADA DATA: Home Sales, Starts Indicative Of Weakening Housing Activity
Apr-15 13:52
Existing home sales volumes and prices fell sharply in March, with housing starts also pulling back sharply, amid a US trade war-related pullback in broader economic confidence.
- With a fourth consecutive monthly drop - of 4.8% M/M SA in March - sales dropped 9.3% Y/Y din the month (NSA), per Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) data, including drops of 12.8% and 23.6% in Vancouver / Toronto, respectively.
- March sales were the weakest for that month since 2009 (which was amid the depths of the global financial crisis) on an NSA basis.
- Poor sales and rising inventories are loosening market conditions: March's existing home inventories were equivalent to 5.1 months of sales, up from 3.7 in just 4 months, which ex-pandemic 2020 was the highest since April 2019. (CREA defines a "seller’s market" as <3.6 months, with a "buyer’s market" >6.4). Sales-to-new listings were 45.9%, from 49.7% prior, lowest since Feb 2009 (CREA notes "readings between 45% and 65% generally consistent with balanced housing market conditions").
- And prices are likewise pulling back, down 1.0% M/M SA for the biggest drop since November 2023 for the lowest prices since August 2021 ($702,800) per the National Composite MLS Home Price Index (HPI). NSA, national prices were down 3.7%.
- Per CREA Chief Economist Shaun Cathcart cited in the report: “Up until this point, declining home sales have mostly been about tariff uncertainty. Going forward, the Canadian housing space will also have to contend with the actual economic fallout. In short order we’ve gone from a slam dunk rebound year to treading water at best."
- The housing market continues to show signs of slowing real activity as well: data out earlier Tuesday saw housing starts miss expectations badly to the downside in March, to 214.2k SAAR (238.8k survey, 221.4k prior), the 2nd weakest in 23 months and the bottom of the post-2020 range.
MNI EXCLUSIVE: EU Trade Officials Assess Chances of Deal with China on EVs
Apr-15 13:49
- EU trade officials assess the chances of a deal with China on EVs, opposed by the U.S. -- On MNI Policy MainWire now, for more details please contact sales@marketnews.com
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