EM CEEMEA CREDIT: SOAF: SARB Warns Of Rising Risks To Medium-Term Outlook

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg         
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8450 High Mar 11    
• PRICE: 0.8411 @ 06:52 GMT Mar 17 
• SUP 1: 0.8369/8342 Low Mar 14 / 50-day EMA    
• SUP 2: 0.8299/41 Low Mar 5 / 3 and a near-term bear trigger 
• SUP 3: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 4: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range

A bull cycle in EURGBP remains in play and Friday’s bullish engulfing candle pattern signals a resumption of the trend and the end of the recent corrective pullback. Initial firm support to watch lies at 0.8342, the 50-day EMA. For bulls, a continuation higher and a break of 0.8450, the Mar 11 high, would open 0.8474, the Jan 20 high and the next key resistance. Clearance of this level would strengthen bullish conditions.

• On Thursday, Spain will hold a Bono/Obli auction to sell the off-the-run 0.50% Apr-30 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012F76), the on-the-run 10-year 3.15% Apr-35 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012O67) and the 3.45% Jul-43 Obli (ISIN: ES0000012K95) The size will be announced this afternoon.
• Also on Thursday, France will hold a MT OAT auction with a combined E11.5-13.5bln on offer: the on-the-run 2.40% Sep-28 OAT (ISIN: FR001400XLW2) and 2.75% Feb-30 OAT (ISIN: FR001400PM68), alongside the 0% May-32 OAT (ISIN: FR0014007L00) and the 3.00% May-33 OAT (ISIN: FR001400H7V7).
• Next on Thursday, Ireland will hold a IGB auction. Details will be announced this morning. We expect two lines to be on offer with a good chance of a 10-year issue (either the 2.60% Oct-34 IGB or 0.40% May-35 IGB) and/or a green bond (the 1.35% Mar-31 Green IGB or the 3.00% Oct-43 Green IGB).
• Later on Thursday, France will return to the market to hold a IL OAT auction to sell a combined E1.5-2.0bln. On offer will be the 0.60% Jul-34 OATei (ISIN: FR001400JI88), the 1.80% Jul-40 OATei (ISIN: FR0010447367), the 0.10% Jul-53 OATei (ISIN: FR0014008181) and the 0.10% Mar-36 OATi (ISIN: FR0013524014).
• Cancelled auction: Note that due to last week’s syndication / switch and tender operation, the PDMA has announced that the auction that was previously scheduled for Wednesday has been cancelled

NOMINAL FLOWS: The upcoming week sees no redemptions. Coupon payments for the week total E4.5bln of which E2.2bln are Italian, E1.2bln are Austrian, E0.5bln are German and E0.3bln are Greek. This leaves estimated net flows for the week at positive E21.9bln, vs negative E8.3bln last week.

Slovakia, Finland, Germany, Spain, France and Ireland are all due to hold auctions in the upcoming week. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E26.4bln, vs E32.2bln last week.

For the full MNI EGB Issuance, Redemption and Cash Flow Matrix click here.

• Today, Slovakia will hold a SlovGB auction to sell the 3.625% Jun-33 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000023230), the 3.75% Mar-34 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000024865), the 3.75% Feb-35 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000022539) and the 1.00% Oct-51 SlovGB (ISIN: SK4000019857).
• Tomorrow, Finland will hold a conventional auction to a sell combined E1.0-1.5bln of the 3.00% Sep-34 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000571104) and the 2.75% Apr-38 RFGB (ISIN: FI4000546528).
• On Wednesday, Germany will hold a 30-year Bund auction to sell E1.0bln of the 0% Aug-50 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102481) alongside E1.5bln of the 1.80% Aug-53 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102614).