SNB: SNB To Start Publishing Meeting Summaries from Sep Meeting

NOK outperformance against the G10 basket has persisted through the morning, helping EURNOK push through initial support at 11.9326 (23.6% retracement of the upleg off the late July low). This exposes the 20-day (11.8618) and 50-day (11.7945) EMAs on the downside, with key support and the bear trigger defined at the 11.7460 July 30 low.

• The slightly stronger-than-expected July inflation report set the tone for NOK this morning. Although CPI-ATE inflation was actually in line with Norges Bank’s June MPR projections at 3.1% Y/Y, measures of inflation momentum suggest underlying price pressures remain a little persistent.
• This should push back against the need for firmer guidance towards a September cut at Thursday’s Norges Bank decision.
• Brent crude and natural gas futures have inched higher through the morning, potentially providing background support to NOK. The energy complex is being dominated by speculation ahead of Friday's Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska.
• NOKSEK is now up 0.75% on the session, with SEK also pressured by subdued European equity performance. That brings the cross back above prior support at 0.9329 (June 26 low). Initial resistance is the August 7 high at 0.9454.

• Greenback creeps the best levels of the session headed into the NY crossover, with EUR/USD dragged further off the early overnight high. Move has prompted USD/CNH and USD/JPY to test the Friday highs - clearance of which marks a further reversal of the NFP-triggered losses - albeit only a small part of the USD step lower.
• FX futures markets signal low participation today: intraday volumes are lower across the board for this time of day: EUR futures see activity of 30% below average, GBP 20% below and JPY futures 35% below average, even when factoring in the pick-up in the spot price in recent trade.
• Equity futures still point to a higher open on Wall Street today, however Europe's early gains have faltered - with the Stoxx600 now lower, with the move coinciding with a recovery in Europe-facing oil prices.
• Focus today rests on speculation and expectations for the Trump-Putin meeting scheduled for later this week. Ahead of the meeting in Alaska, reports this weekend suggested that Moscow and Washington are working toward a deal to progress with a ceasefire in exchange for a freezing of territorial gains - an agreement that will likely receive heavy criticism among European leaders, and the Ukrainian President himself.
• There remain questions over whether Zelenskyy himself could attend the meeting in some capacity - but regardless of the outcomes this week, the meeting represents a significant thawing in tensions between Russia and the West.

• The below updates the list of analyst unrounded CPI estimates ahead of tomorrow’s July report -- the full MNI US CPI Preview will be released later today.
• The median of thirteen analysts below looks for headline CPI at 0.24% M/M, suggesting risk is tilted to the upside to the Bloomberg consensus of 0.2.
• Core CPI meanwhile is seen at 0.31% M/M (cons 0.3) with a current range of 0.21-0.35% M/M after the 0.23% M/M seen in June. It would be the strongest M/M since January.
• Particularly early core PCE tracking is currently between 0.29-0.33% from these analysts, an acceleration from 0.26% M/M in June. It would be the strongest M/M since February.