AUSSIE BONDS: Slightly Cheaper Ahead Of US Mid-Term Elections

• RES 3: 133.32 - High Mar ‘26
• RES 2: 130.66 - Low Jan 21 
• RES 1: 127.07/128.42- 50-dma (cont) / High Jun 15 
• PRICE: 124.53 @ 17:21 BST Oct 02
• SUP 1: 124.00 - Low Sep 2
• SUP 2: 123.60 - 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• SUP 3: 121.49 - 50.0% retrace of the 1990 - 2020 major bull leg 

Downside pressure resumed in JGB futures on the back of the inflationary pressures evident in the recent US PPI and CPI data and as markets settle after the BoJ rate hike. For now, the trend structure remains bearish and the latest downleg resulted in the contract piercing support at 125.91, the Aug 17 low. This move lower confirms a continuation of the primary downtrend. Key near-term resistance is 128.42, the Jun 15 high. Clearance of this hurdle is required to signal a short-term reversal.

"*NASDAQ 100 FUTURES RISE 0.3% AS JOBS DATA EASES FED HIKE BETS" - BBG

In post-Tokyo trade on Friday, JGB futures closed stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels.

• US tsys finished Friday's session showing a bear-flattener, with benchmark yields 1-4bps higher despite a knee-jerk rally following lower than expected Sep job gains (29k sa, vs. cons 81k along with a two-month downward revision of -60k, which reflected a more realistic seasonal factor for Aug plus some genuine softening back in July).
• Private payrolls told a better story, rising 46k (sa, cons 81k) as the government surprisingly dragged -17k, but as we noted after the release it was also accompanied by a heavier two-month downward revision of -81k.
• "The U.S. removed all its B-1 bombers from the U.K.'s RAF Fairford air base due to security concerns over suspected terror plots against the facility, American officials said." - BBG
• (Bloomberg) “Japan's parliament is set to convene an extraordinary session with bills related to a consumption tax cut on food products in focus. The government will submit 21 new bills during the session, including those to diversify crude oil suppliers and establish rules for land acquisitions in areas important to national security.”
• Today, the local calendar will see S&P Global PMI (Composite & Services) and Consumer Confidence Index data.

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