EM ASIA CREDIT: SK Innovation: Q3 results strong

• RES 4: 1.2063 2.236 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - 247 price swing
• RES 3: 1.2000 Round number resistance 
• RES 2: 1.1919/23 High Sep 17 / 2.0 proj of Feb 28 - Mar 18-27 swing
• RES 1: 1.1820 High Sep 23  
• PRICE: 1.1764 @ 06:03 BST Oct 2
• SUP 1: 1.1684/46 50-day EMA / Low Sep 25 
• SUP 2: 1.1574 Low Aug 27
• SUP 3: 1.1528 Low Aug 5
• SUP 4: 1.1392 Low Aug 1 and bear trigger.

The trend theme in EURUSD remains bullish and the pullback between Sep 17 - 25, appears corrective. Support to watch lies at 1.1684. the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of this average would signal scope for a deeper retracement and expose 1.1574 initially, the Aug 27 low. For bulls, a clear  resumption of gains would refocus attention on 1.1923, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.1820, the Sep 23 high.

Oil prices are moderately higher during today’s APAC session after falling sharply earlier this week. WTI is up 0.4% to $62.61/bbl off the intraday low of $62.20 and Brent is 0.3% higher at $66.24/bbl after falling to $65.87. The USD index is down 0.1% after the US government shutdown began at midnight ET.

• Supply/demand fundamentals remain in focus with a prolonged US government shutdown potentially impacting energy demand and reportedly a 500kbd increase in OPEC’s output target for November to be discussed at its 5 October meeting. According to Bloomberg though, OPEC has denied that it is considering three consecutive monthly 500kbd rises.
• Bloomberg reported a US crude stock drawdown of 3.7mn last week, according to people familiar with the API data. However, gasoline rose 1.3mn and distillate 3.0mn. Inventory data is being monitored for signs of excess supply as the IEA is forecasting a record market surplus in 2026. The official EIA data is scheduled for Wednesday but may now be delayed. If it follows the industry data will show a third consecutive weekly inventory drop.
• With the government shutdown, some US data may be postponed. September ADP employment, final September S&P Global manufacturing PMI & ISM and August construction are scheduled for Wednesday. European September manufacturing PMIs and euro area September CPI print. The Fed’s Barkin and Goolsbee and ECB’s Elderson & de Guindos speak.

South Korean companies have supported stock markets through buybacks.  In most developed markets, once shares are bought back they are cancelled whereas in Korea they are retained by the company which (for some) opens up the opportunity for manipulation.  The National Assembly is likely to pass a bill by year-end that would require companies to cancel shares bought back, according to Park Hong Bae, a lawmaker in the ruling Democratic Party. 

• The NIKKEI continues to fall after last week's new all time highs and is off -0.85% today, and week to date down over -1.5%
• The KOSPI is up +0.85% on a strong day for data as exports surprised to the upside.
• The TAIEX had a strong day yesterday and followed that up again today with gains of +0.95%.  
• The FTSE Malay KLCI is having one its strongest day of the week, up +0.57%.
• The Jakarta Composite fell by -0.77% yesterday and is barely positive today, up +0.10%
• The NIFTY 50 fell for eight consecutive day and following the RBI decision, has moved higher by +0.20%