EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Seplat Energy: Q2 earnings supportive
(SEPLLN; B2/B/B)
- Nigeria’s upstream oil&gas Seplat Energy posted 2Q25 interim results, with expanded scale production supportive of growth. We see this as supportive. In secondary market, SEPPLLN 9.125 30 chart at 8.82% yield area or z+526bp, that is approx. 145bp tighter vs previous quarter earnings’ release. The bond launched at 9.125% yield back in March.
- In USD terms, 2Q25 revenues were up 143% YoY at USD588.5mn on continued crude oil contribution from offshore Seplat Energy Producing Nigeria Unlimited (SEPNU, volumes lifted 7.9MMbbls for the quarter, H1 at 17.8MMbbls +3232% YoY). With H1 prod’n above mid-point, Co. confirms production FY25 guidance at 120-140kboepd.
- Adj EBITDA at USD334.4mn with sequentially improving margin at 56.8% and cash from operations at USD459.5mn. Higher QoQ capex at USD56.3mn (guidance for FY25 confirmed at USD260-320mn, of which: Onshore USD180-220mn, Offshore USD80-100mn), resulted in FCF at USD214mn. PBT is sequentially lower at USD 85.5mn, -22% YoY.
- Further to refinancing in Q1 and releases of USD250mn under the RCF, which was extended to end of ’26, the Co. stated that post Q2 it has released the remaining USD100mn of the RCF, bringing the total UF to USD350mn. With cash & equiv. at quarter end standing at USD419.7mn, net debt of USD676mn leaves with TTM net leverage at 0.5x, trending lower sequentially and vs YE24 (guidance confirmed at below 2.0x, with debt covenants at 3.0x).
- For reference, back in June Moody’s upgraded to B2, citing as direct rationale for its action Nigeria’s sovereign upgrade to B3, announced on May 30. Seplat Energy’s ratings are capped one notch above the sovereign, which at B2 is where it has landed. We note that it is in line with Nigeria’s CC LT Foreign Currency Debt at B2.
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
CROSS ASSET: US Treasury Futures are ticking higher
- A fairly light Volume going through in Treasuries on this 3 ticks spike higher in Tnotes.
- TYU5 printed a 112.03 high on Friday, which equated to a 4.2378% low in Yield.
- Technically the next area of interest in the 10yr Yield will be at 4.1942%, and this level equates to 112.11 today.
- USDJPY hovers at session low on that latest push higher in Bonds, and although USDJPY printed a 143.75 low last Week, better support is seen around 143.65.
SILVER TECHS: Bullish Structure Intact
- RES 4: $39.026 - 1.382 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 3: $38.246 - 1.236 proj of the Apr 7 - 25 - May 15 swing
- RES 2: $38.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $37.317 - High Jun 18
- PRICE: $36.213@ 08:17 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: $35.766 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 2: $34.595/31.651 - 50-day EMA / Low May 15
- SUP 3: $30.915/28.351 - Low Apr 11 / 7 and the bear trigger
- SUP 4: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 ‘24
A bull wave in Silver remains in play and the latest pullback is considered corrective. The metal has recently traded through resistance at $34.903, the Oct 23 ‘24 high and a key bull trigger. The break of it marks an important medium-term bullish development. Sights are on the $38.00 handle next. On the downside, initial support to watch lies at $35.766, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would open $34.595, the 50-day EMA.
USDCAD TECHS: Pivot Resistance Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.4111 High Apr 4
- RES 3: 1.4016 High May 12 and 13 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 1.3920 High May 21
- RES 1: 1.3806 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 1.3654 @ 08:14 BST Jun 30
- SUP 1: 1.3618 Low Jun 26
- SUP 2: 1.3540 Low Jun 16 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 1.3503 1.618 proj of the Feb 3 - 14 - Mar 4 price swing
- SUP 4: 1.3473 Low Oct 2 2024
USDCAD is trading below its recent highs. The primary downtrend remains intact and short-term gains between Jun 16 - 23 appear to have been corrective. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at 1.3540, the Jun 16 low. Clearance of this price point would resume the downtrend. Any reversal higher would instead signal scope for a stronger retracement. Pivot resistance to monitor is at the 50-day EMA, at 1.3806.
