US: Senate Begins Action On Budget Resolution, Escalates Showdown w/House

Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) confirmed the Senate will begin floor action on a budget resolution to underpin a USD$300 billion border security, defence, and energy reconciliation bill. 

• Thune said in a statement: “It’s time to act on [Trump's] decisive mandate.... That starts this week with passing [Senator Lindsay Graham’s (R-SC)] budget...”
• The move is a major step towards outflanking the House on strategy and a signal that the Senate is sceptical House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) can corral his conference behind a single 'megabill' that includes hefty spending cuts and a debt ceiling hike.
• Thune’s decision does not preclude the possibility of Congress ultimately lining up behind Johnson’s one-bill strategy, but puts a significant time squeeze on the House and could compel some House Republicans to hold out for the Senate’s narrower proposal, effectively tanking Johnson's plan.
• The Senate strategy increases the risk that Congressional logjam later in the year could imperil Trump's more complex tax agenda. Speaker Johnson and the top tax writer in the House, Rep Jason Smith (R-MO), are adamant that two reconciliation bills in one year could be too heavy a lift for the House considering the need for near-unanimous support from deficit hawks - who want deeper cuts - and moderates - who want to see welfare ringfenced and the SALT cap raised.   
• Senate Democrats are likely to use budget votes to highlight potential cuts to Medicaid, tax breaks for the wealthy, and Elon Musk's attempts to reform the federal bureaucracy.