EM CEEMEA CREDIT: Saudi Electricity Company: MoU on JV for PP

Ahead of today’s new 7-year RFGB syndication, Danske Bank note that “Finland will have fulfilled more than 85% of the 2025 issuance target after the transaction if it sells EUR3bn. Fair value relative to the Finnish ASW-spread curve vs 6M Euribor is MS+29bp”.

• Note that MNI also pencils in a E3bln WNG transaction. 

• The German Bund saw a 13 ticks drop on the Open following a 1 tenth beat in the UK CPI versus Consensus, but the move was quickly reversed and Bund has pushed back above Cash Opening level, to test a new intraday high, and the initial resistance of 129.18 (Friday's high).
• The resistance was seen at 129.18, but with this level being cleared this will be followed by 129.62 next.
• Technically, the support in Futures is unchanged at the 2.80% Yield, circa the 128.57 area.
• With the touch above Inflation Data for the UK out of the Way, EU Final CPI is the only Data left for the session.
• Some will look Towards the FOMC minutes, but won't be moving the needle with Powell due on Friday.
• SUPPLY: Germany 20s, 30s (equates to 17.3k Buxl) could weigh. US Sells $16bn at 20yr Bonds.
• ECB Lagarde, {us} Fed Waller, Bostic.

• Food price inflation coming in higher than expected will be a bit of a concern. Note that the BOE's forecasts for the next 2-3 months are already above consensus though, with a number of analysts in their previews noting the potential that we are close to the peak.
• The September peak is unlikely to be meaningfully different to where it was expected before this data, however, with air fares likely to have normalised by then (albeit they are so volatile it's hard to say that with much certainty!)
• Note that cultural services also contributed 5 hundredths positively this month (double that for services). That's where concert prices etc goes into. There is also potential for that to be reversed out.
• So that's 25 hundredths of upside pressure from accommodation (which is partly base effects), air fares (which are timing related) and cultural services this month.
• On the positive side rents fell to 4.54% from 5.84%Y/Y which took 10 tenths off of headline CPI (a fall was expected but that seems a little larger than expected to us).