EU FINANCIALS: S&P Upgrades UK Risk Assessment - Lloyds and NWG Upgraded      

• RES 4: 6523.63 1.764 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing 
• RES 3: 6500.00 Round number resistance
• RES 2: 6477.31 1.618 proj of the May 23 - Jun 11 - 23 price swing
• RES 1: 6468.50 High Jul 31 and the bull trigger      
• PRICE: 6406.50 @ 07:35 BST Aug 12
• SUP 1: 6240.03 2.0% 10-dma Envelope
• SUP 2: 6239.50 Low Aug 1
• SUP 3: 6230.96 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 6213.75 50% retracement of Jun - Aug Upleg

Prices recovered well Friday, meaning the bulk of the bounce off the NFP low is holding firm, keeping the underlying uptrend intact for now. The index holds above support at the 20-day EMA, at 6349.16. Through recent phases of weakness, the 50-day EMA at 6230.96, has held as support - and will be important on any intraday declines. Clearance of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. The primary trend remains up, leaving key short-term resistance and the bull trigger at 6468.50, the Jul 31 high.

RXV5 126.50/125.50/125.00 broken put ladder, bought for 4 in 1k.

PAYE-RTI flash payrolls data for July was not as bad as feared, falling 8k compared to a median of around -20k. 

• Meanwhile, the revision for June was broadly in line with expectations. The flash reading of -41k was revised up to -26k in the current vintage.
• There were also smaller upward revisions going back to December 2024, so while sequential payrolls growth is still negative, there doesn’t seem to be as much evidence that the payrolls downtrend is still accelerating.
• Briefly taking a look at the PAYE-RTI median pay growth series (which should be taken with plenty of salt, like the payrolls reading, due to revisions), the single month median for July eased to 4.76% Y/Y (vs 4.86% prior). This implied a 3m Y/Y average of 4.82% (vs 4.87% prior).
• However, note that there were upward revisions of 10bp and 15bp to the May and June single month readings respectively, with smaller upward revisions seen back to November 2024.