OIL PRODUCTS: Russia’s Fuel Oil Exports Hit Wartime High

• 10,000 SFRZ5 96.25/96.50/96.75/97.00 call condors, 4.0 net ref 96.125 at 0857:04ET

• FRBNY EFFR for prior session:
  • Daily Effective Fed Funds Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $104B
  • Daily Overnight Bank Funding Rate: 4.33% (+0.00), volume: $261B
• Earlier Repo Reference Rates
  • Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.33% (+0.02), volume: $2.759T
  • Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.32% (+0.02), volume: $1.125T
  • Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.32% (+0.02), volume: $1.094T
  • (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)

The 0.1pp pickup in core CPI M/M to 0.23% from 0.13% was basically equally split between core goods and services: note that vehicle price inflation didn't really make much of a sequential contribution difference (subtracting around 0.02pp to core CPI each, with used -0.7% after -0.5% and new -0.3% for a 2nd month). The standout was "other goods", ie ex-vehicle goods, raising their contribution to 0.09pp from 0.02pp prior. See table below though also note slight differences in aggregates due to rounding.

• That's the biggest such contribution since June 2022 in what is arguably the clearest sign yet that tariffs are beginning to seep through into CPI.
• For example, apparel accelerated to 0.43% M/M (-0.42% prior), contributing 0.01pp to CPI, most in 4 months. But there were multiple other core goods areas that are seen sensitive to inflation that saw acceleration, including recreation commodities (0.77% from 0.41%) and household furnishings and supplies (0.98% from 0.34%).
• Core goods ex-used vehicles rose the fastest since Feb 2022 (0.32% M/M after 0.03).
• On the services side, note the 0.05pp drag on core inflation from lodging. Medical services made up for that, rebounding to contribute 0.05pp after 0.01pp; "other services" were then 3rd biggest contributor in our aggregates outside of housing (0.12pp) and the above-mentioned "other goods") (0.09pp).