OIL: Russia-Venezuela Treaty Envisages Upstream Cooperation: Interfax

• US TSY 14D AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $92 MLN FROM $50.000 BLN TOTAL

• EUR/USD: Apr10 $1.0900-10(E2.6bln), $1.0935-50(E2.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Apr09 Y147.40-50($1.1bln); Apr10 Y143.00($1.3bln)
• EUR/GBP: Apr09 Gbp0.8405-20(E1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: Apr10 $0.6400(A$1.3bln)
• USD/CAD: Apr10 C$1.4395-00($1.5bln)
• USD/CNY: Apr10 Cny7.4000($1.4bln)

The latest Dallas Fed banking survey, collected just shy of Liberation Day tariffs, showed a sharp deceleration in loan volume and demand growth compared to responses from six weeks ago but it was still healthier than readings through 2023-24. The balance for changes in lending standards meanwhile was similar to previous readings. 

• The survey was conducted Mar 24-Apr 2 and so offers a useful update on lending trends although does of course miss out on the fallout from the significant escalation in tariffs after the Apr 2 “Liberation Day” announcement.
• Loan demand: current balance at 6.1 after 30 for its lowest since Nov but still better than a string of all but one negative readings through Oct 2022 – Nov 2024; future balance at 27.7 after 56.3 for lowest since Aug 2024.
• NPLs: current balance +19.4 after +15.7 in mid-Feb survey (highest since Nov and before that Jul). The future balance increased to +22.3 after +14.1 for its highest since Aug 2024 but it’s still well below recent highs of a net 55% in 2023 expecting NPLs to increase over the next six months.
• See the below charts for context: