AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, RBA Hauser: Global Trade Upheaval Not Covid
May-22 23:17
ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +5.0) are stronger after US tsys recovered roughly half of Wednesday’s losses.
- Overnight, bonds opened slightly weaker following news that the House passed the “One Big Beautiful Bill” which reignited fiscal concerns amid estimates that the legislation could add trillions to the deficit. However, the market ultimately looked through those fears, with dip-buying emerging as the 30-year yield approached the 5.15% level, attracting strong demand. It closed 5bps lower at 5.04%.
- (Bloomberg) -- "RBA Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser says the global trade upheaval isn't at the stage of a crisis like the Covid pandemic, during a panel discussion in Sydney on Thursday." "Thinking through some of these scenarios we're ready to respond if we need to", and "So far, the forward-looking indicators in Australia have not really moved at all".
- Cash ACGBs are 4-6bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential -13bps.
- The bills strip has twist-steepened, with pricing -1 to +3.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given a 64% probability, with a cumulative 70bps of easing priced by year-end.
- Today, the local calendar will be empty tomorrow apart from AOFM's planned sale of A$800mn of the 2.75% 21 November 2028 bond.
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BONDS: NZGBS: Slightly Weaker, US Tsys Modestly Mixed After China & Powell HLs
Apr-22 23:06
In local morning trade, NZGBs are flat to 2bps cheaper, with a steeper curve, after US tsys finished mixed on Tuesday.
- US curves unwound a large portion of Monday's steepening, with bonds outperforming weaker short-end rates as markets reassessed tariff-tied risks to global trade and the Trump Administration's efforts to meddle with the Federal Reserve's independent policymaking.
- Brief midday risk-on move extended after headlines that Tsy Sec Bessent (speaking at a JP Morgan event in DC - closed to public and media) saw the China tariff standoff as unsustainable and expected a de-escalation to occur. The bloom quickly came off the rose as sources clarified the gist of negotiations would be a "slog".
- Risk-on sentiment has extended into today’s Asia-Pac session after US President Trump stated that he had no intention of firing Fed Chair Powell.
- Trump also stated that the final tariff number for China wouldn't be near the current 145%.
- Swap rates are flat to 3bps higher, with the 2s10s curve flatter.
- RBNZ dated OIS pricing is showing 27bps of easing priced for May, with a cumulative 79bps by November 2025.
- Today, the local calendar will be empty.
- On Thursday, the NZ Treasury plans to sell NZ$250mn of the 4.50% May-30 bond, NZ$250mn of the 4.25% May-36 bond.
MNI: UK JAN-MAR MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3% :Brightmine
Apr-22 23:01
- MNI: UK JAN-MAR MEDIAN PAY AWARDS +3% :Brightmine
JGB TECHS: (M5) Off Highs, But Underlying Strength Persists
Apr-22 22:45
- RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
- RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6
- RES 1: 142.95 - High Apr 7
- PRICE: 140.74 @ 16:14 GMT Apr 22
- SUP 1: 139.52 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope
- SUP 2: 136.57 - 1.382 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
- SUP 3: 134.89 - 2.000 proj of the Jan 28 - Feb 20 - Feb 26 bear leg
JGBs are extending the strong bullish reversal, rejecting any test of fresh cycle lows for the M5 contract. This defies the bearish momentum studies drawn on the longer-term chart, clearing moving-average resistance to print 142.40 at the new upper level. To the downside, sights are on 136.57, a Fibonacci projection. 144.48 is the medium-term target on any recovery.
