US: Reports-Stefanik Could Have UN Bid Withdrawn To Protect House Majority
CBS and Punchbowl News reporting that the White House is considering withdrawing Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY)'s nomination to serve as US ambassador to the United Nations, or asking her to withdraw, amid concerns about the extremely narrow Republican majority in the House of Representatives.
- The current split is 218 Republicans to 213 Democrats, with four seats vacant. In recent days reports have circulated claiming that there are increasing GOP concerns that the Democrats could win the 1 April special election for Florida's 6th Congressional District. This seat was vacated by Mike Waltz after being appointed as President Donald Trump's National Security Adviser. A 25 March poll showed GOP candidate Randy Fine leading his Democratic challenger Josh Weil by just 4 points in a district that Trump carried by 30% in November.
- In FL-6 and FL-1 (the seat vacated by Matt Gaetz ahead of his aborted bid to become US Attorney General), the Democrat candidates have heavily out-raised their Republican opponents.
- Given that House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) was only able to pass gov't funding legislation avoiding a shutdown by a 217-215 margin in Feburary, another vacant seat would be a major risk.
- This risk would be heightened by the fact that Stefanik's seat is in New York, where the governor, Kathy Hochul, is a Democrat. As such, she could slow-walk the process of a special election to keep the House Republicans under pressure.
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EGB SYNDICATION: Spain long 15-year Obli: Priced
- Reoffer price 99.824 to yield 3.515%
- Spread set earlier at 3.90% Jul-39 Obli (mid) + 9bps (Guidance was +11bps area)
- Size: E7bln (MNI expected E5-10bln)
- Books closed in excess of E93bln (inc. E7.5bln JLM interest)
- Maturity: 31 January 2041
- Coupon: 3.50%. Short first to 31 January 2026
- Settlement: 4 March-2025 (T+5)
- ISIN: ES0000012O75
- Bookrunners: BARCLAYS / CACIB (B&D/DM) / GSBE SE / HSBC / NOMURA / SG
- Timing: FTT Immediately
From market source / BBG
GILT AUCTION PREVIEW: On offer next week
The DMO has announced it will be looking to sell GBP2.25bln of the 4.375% Jul-54 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BPSNBB36) at its auction next Tuesday, March 4.
US DATA: Consumer Confidence Drops With Inflation Expectations Jumping
Yet another survey conducted in February shows a deterioration in private setor confidence: the Conference Board's consumer confidence composite fell to 98.3 from 105.3 prior (102.5 expected), led by a drop in expectations to 72.9 from 82.2. The "present situation" composite edged lower for a 2nd consecutive month, to 136.5 (139.9 prior).
- This was the 4th-worst monthly composite reading since the start of 2021, and represented the largest monthly decline since Aug 2021.
- According to the report, the Expectations index "was below the threshold of 80 that usually signals a recession ahead" (though we would note that this index was below 80 through most of 2022-2024 without recession hitting).
- 12-month inflation expectations jumped: average hit 6.0% from 5.2% prior, highest since May 2023, with median to 4.8% from 4.2% prior, highest since Nov 2023.
- Only one of the five components of the composite Index rose: assessment of present business conditions.
- As with other February surveys, policy uncertainty was a major theme - the report notes: "There was a sharp increase in the mentions of trade and tariffs, back to a level unseen since 2019. Most notably, comments on the current Administration and its policies dominated the responses.”
- Notable on the labor market front: the differential between jobs "plentiful" minus "hard to get" fell to 17.1, the 2nd monthly drop and the lowest figure in 4 months. A resumption of this downtrend would be consistent with an increase in the unemployment rate from its current level of 4.0%.
