US OUTLOOK/OPINION: Primary Dealer Analysts See Mild Dovish Skew To U/E & AHE
Jun-05 18:42
- The below is taken from the MNI US Payrolls Preview ahead of tomorrow's release for May.
- The median primary dealer analyst sees nonfarm payrolls growth of 125k in May, exactly in line with Bloomberg consensus (126k at time of preview publication) whilst the Bloomberg whisper sits at 110k.
- The unemployment rate is broadly expected to have held at a rounded 4.2% for a third month whilst AHE growth accelerates from 0.17% to 0.3% M/M.
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COMMODITIES: Crude Rebounds Amid Mid-East Tensions, Gold Recovers
May-06 18:32
- Crude has rebounded back to levels seen late last week amidst signs of rising tensions in the Middle East, while the market continues to digest oversupply risks after OPEC+ decided on a large output hike for June.
- WTI June 25 is up by 3.6% at $59.2/bbl.
- OPEC+ agreed to increase output by 411k b/d in June, following a similar rise in May.
- A medium-term bearish trend in WTI futures remains intact and short-term gains are considered corrective.
- Attention is on $54.67, the Apr 9 low and a bear trigger. Resistance to watch is $64.13, the 50-day EMA.
- Meanwhile, gold has rallied by a further 2.5% today to $3,417/oz, taking total gains this week to over 5%.
- The move comes amid a further decline in the dollar, which will have provided some support to the price of gold, along with continued haven demand stemming from ongoing tariff and geopolitical uncertainty.
- The rally in gold this week suggests that the correction between Apr 22 - May 1 is over. A continuation higher would refocus attention on key resistance and the bull trigger at $3,500.1, the Apr 22 all-time high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend.
- Elsewhere, copper has also rallied by a further 1.3% to $476/lb, taking total gains this week to almost 2%.
- For copper, key short-term resistance has been defined at $498.25, the Apr 23 high. A resumption of weakness would expose $436.00, the Apr 10 low.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Jun'25 5Y/30Y Ultra Bond Flattener
May-06 18:31
Large flattener block posted at 1422:48ET, DV01 $555,000:
- -13,000 FVM5 108-14.75, sell through 108-15.5 post time bid vs.
- +3,000 WNM5 118-19, post time offer
USDJPY TECHS: Trend Needle Points South
May-06 18:30
- RES 4: 149.28 High Apr 3
- RES 3: 148.27 High Apr 9
- RES 2: 146.49 50-day EMA and key resistance
- RES 1: 145.92 High May 2
- PRICE: 142.84 @ 16:55 BST May 6
- SUP 1: 142.36/141.97 Low May 6 / Apr 29
- SUP 2: 139.79 1.382 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 3: 138.82 1.500 proj of the Feb 12 - Mar 11 - 28 price swing
- SUP 4: 138.07 Low Jul 28 ‘23
The trend direction in USDJPY remains bearish and gains since Apr 22 are considered corrective. Price remains below resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 146.49. A clear break of this average would highlight a possible reversal. Moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. A resumption of the trend would open 139.79 next, a Fibonacci projection. First key support to watch is 141.97, the Apr 29 low.
