OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Tests Resistance
May-29 10:39
- On the commodity front, recent gains in Gold highlight the end of the corrective phase between Apr 22 - May 15. Medium-term trend signals are unchanged, they remain bullish and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, confirming a dominant uptrend. A resumption of gains would open $3435.6 next, the May 7 high. Key support and the bear trigger has been defined at $3121.0, the May 15 low. First support is $3206.2, the 50-day EMA.
- In the oil space, WTI futures traded to a fresh S/T cycle high on May 21 before finding resistance. The recovery since Apr 9, appears corrective. Key resistance to watch is $62.60, the 50-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open $65.82, Apr 4 high. For bears a reversal lower would refocus attention on $54.33, the Apr 9 low and bear trigger. The price pattern on May 21 is a shooting star - a bearish signal.
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EUROZONE DATA: Few Bright Spots In The EC's April Survey
Apr-29 10:30
The EC’s sentiment index slipped to 93.6 in April, below the 94.5 consensus and 95.0 prior for the lowest since October 2023. The results underscore ECB Governing Council concerns around the growth outlook, with few positive signals across the business and consumer sides of the survey.
- Both industry (-11.2 vs 10.4 cons, -10.7 prior) and services (1.4 vs 2.2 cons, 2.2 prior) were weaker than expected.
- Within the industry survey, the expected production component was 0.0, its weakest level YTD. There were no obvious signs of tariff front-running in the export orders component.
- The retail confidence reading also softened to -8.9 (vs -7.0 prior). The future business activity component fell for a fourth consecutive month.
- The expected employment indicator was steady at 96.5, the weakest since February 2021. Meanwhile, expected price metrics ticked up modestly across industries.
- Consumer confidence was confirmed at -16.7 (vs -14.5 prior). All of the forward-looking components (financial situation, economic situation, unemployment expectations, capacity to save and major purchase intentions) weakened in April.
LOOK AHEAD: Tuesday Data Calendar: Inventories, House Prices, JOLTS Job Openings
Apr-29 10:27
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 29-Apr 0830 Advance Goods Trade Balance (-$147.8B rev, -$145.0B)
- 29-Apr 0830 Wholesale Inventories MoM (0.3%, 0.6%), Retail MoM (0.1%, 0.3%)
- 29-Apr 0900 FHFA House Price Index MoM (0.2%, 0.3%)
- 29-Apr 0900 S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA (0.46%, 0.40%)
- 29-Apr 1000 JOLTS Job Openings (7.568M, 7.5M), Rate (4.5%, 4.5%)
- 29-Apr 1000 Conf. Board Consumer Confidence (92.9, 88.0)
- 29-Apr 1030 Dallas Fed Services Activity (-11.3, --)
- 29-Apr 1130 US Tsy $70B 6W bill auction
EGB SYNDICATION: 3.00% Jun-49 Green OAT: Final terms
Apr-29 10:26
- Spread set earlier at 3.00% Jul-49 OAT + 13bps (guidance was +15bp area)
- Size: E5bln (MNI expects E4-8bln)
- Books in excess of E74bln (inc JLM interest)
- Settlement: May 7, 2025 (T+5)
- Bookrunners: Barclays, BNPP (B&D), BofA, CA-CIB, HSBC, Natixis
- Timing: MNI expects to price today
Source: Bloomberg and MNI colour
