OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bear Cycle In Oil Futures Remains In Play
Oct-17 10:51
* On the commodity front, a bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week's extension reinforces...
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EU-BOND AUCTION PREVIEW: EU to confirm non-competitive round to start next week?
Sep-17 10:48
- The EU will announce the details of its bond auction of Monday 22 September at midday BST / 7:00ET / 13:00CET.
- Provisionally this has been announced as the first auction at which the EU will hold a second non-competitive round (at which a further 20% would be available the following day).
- We assume that we will receive confirmation and further details of this today, alongside the bonds that will be on offer.
- We are unsure at this stage whether the non-competitive round will bring any change in sizes in the first round (we assume not) and we still expect triple line EU-bond auctions to be held for the considerable future.
STIR: Fed Cut Pricing For Today Inches Higher But Still <10% Odds Of 50bp Cut
Sep-17 10:37
- Fed Funds implied rates have dipped 0.5bp for today’s decision in response to aforementioned flow (Ongoing trade in FFV5 with paper paying 95.945 on 7K, taken bid over), but it still points to less than 10% odds of a 50bp cut.
- It holds the broad paring in 50bp cut expectations having increased to ~20% after payrolls earlier in the month.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 26.5bp for today, 46bp Oct, 68.5bp Dec, 82.5bp Jan and 96.5bp Mar.
- SOFR futures are essentially unchanged on the day.
- That includes the implied terminal yield of 2.88% (SFRH7), eyeing 145bp of cuts ahead including fully priced cut. It’s within ranges for the past two weeks, including dovish extremes of ~150bp of cuts after payrolls.
- MNI Fed Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/Fed_Prev_Sep2025_With_Analysts_c3eababfe1.pdf
BUNDS: Looking to close the Gap
Sep-17 10:37
- The German curves are tilted to the flatter side in early trade, but the Schatz edges through the very tight intraday high with 5k lifted.
- This is underpinning Bund, albeit still just short of the earlier printed high.
- Initial area of interest in Bund, not a Tech level, is the 129.13 gap.
