GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends
- RES 4: $4443.8 - 3.618 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 3: $4404.9 - 3.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $4400.0 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $4379.9 - Intraday high
- PRICE: $4362.9 @ 07:27 BST Oct 17
- SUP 1: $4140.8 - Low Oct 15
- SUP 2: $3858.4 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3819.6 - Low Oct 2
- SUP 4: $3695.8 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains intact and this week’s extension reinforces current conditions. The move higher maintains the price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Sights are on the $4400.00 handle next, and $4404.9, a Fibonacci projection point. Note that the trend is in overbought territory. A move down would be considered corrective and would allow the overbought set-up to unwind. Support to watch lies at $3958.4, 20-day EMA.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing
- RES 3: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 2: $3705.2 - 1.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
- RES 1: $3703.1 - High Sep 16
- PRICE: $3677.8 @ 07:24 BST Sep 17
- SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11
- SUP 2: $3547.7 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $3449.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20
Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and the yellow metal is trading at its recent highs. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3547.7, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.
BUNDS: FOMC Meeting and presser are at the forefront Today
- Despite a slightly wider traded range Yesterday in Bund, the initial resistance of 128.84 and support at 128.51 have pretty much held Yesterday, printed a quick 128.90 high and a 128.49 low.
- Today, the German contract still trade within that range, a tight 128.71/128.80 (low/high) 9 ticks range pre Cash Open, as the Globe gears up for the FOMC meeting and Powell's Presser.
- The UK CPI was mainly inline, the 1 tenth miss in services CPI was worth a 8 ticks gain in Bund to stretch the range to a 128.87 high post Cash Open.
- Strangely the Pound gained 5 pips vs the Dollar, but Cable now trades below pre CPI level.
- Following the UK CPI Data release, the EU CPI will be final reading, unlikely to be a mover especially ahead of the Fed. Out of the US, Housing Starts will also be non mover.
- SUPPLY: German €1.5bn 30yr (equates to 12.1k Buxl) could weigh into the bidding deadline. Greece 2035 (too small won't impact Bund), and Italy will hold a buyback of 2026 Bonds for a combined €5bn, which could be supportive.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Muller, Escriva, Cipollone (x2), Nagel, Santos Pereira, but all eyes on Fed Powell.
UK DATA: Air fares and package holidays fall back; restaurants / hotels higher
- Looking more at the breakdown air fares contributed -0.17ppt to headline CPI and package holidays -0.03ppt while restaurants and accommodation both added 0.06ppt each.
- The contributions to services are roughly double those.
- There were no real other hugely notable moves.
- So overall, not much in here again to alter expectations of where the peak in CPI will come (which is expected in the September print we will receive next month).
