GOLD TECHS: Bull Trend Extends

• RES 4: $3783.2 - 1.618 proj of the Dec 30 ’24 - Apr 3 - 7 price swing 
• RES 3: $3744.2 - 1.500 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 2: $3705.2 - 1.382 proj of the May 15 - Jun 16 - 30 price swing
• RES 1: $3703.1 - High Sep 16             
• PRICE: $3677.8 @ 07:24 BST Sep 17
• SUP 1: $3614.0 - Low Sep 11  
• SUP 2: $3547.7 - 20-day EMA
• SUP 3: $3449.3 - 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: $3311.6 - Low Aug 20  

Gold remains in a clear bull cycle and the yellow metal is trading at its recent highs. A fresh all-time high, once again this week, confirms a resumption of the primary uptrend and an extension of the sequence of higher highs and higher lows. The next objective is $3705.2, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm support lies at $3547.7, the 20-day EMA. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend.

• Despite a slightly wider traded range Yesterday in Bund, the initial resistance of 128.84 and support at 128.51 have pretty much held Yesterday, printed a quick 128.90 high and a 128.49 low.
• Today, the German contract still trade within that range, a tight 128.71/128.80 (low/high) 9 ticks range pre Cash Open, as the Globe gears up for the FOMC meeting and Powell's Presser.
• The UK CPI was mainly inline, the 1 tenth miss in services CPI was worth a 8 ticks gain in Bund to stretch the range to a 128.87 high post Cash Open.
• Strangely the Pound gained 5 pips vs the Dollar, but Cable now trades below pre CPI level.
• Following the UK CPI Data release, the EU CPI will be final reading, unlikely to be a mover especially ahead of the Fed. Out of the US, Housing Starts will also be non mover.
• SUPPLY: German €1.5bn 30yr (equates to 12.1k Buxl) could weigh into the bidding deadline. Greece 2035 (too small won't impact Bund), and Italy will hold a buyback of 2026 Bonds for a combined €5bn, which could be supportive.
• SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Muller, Escriva, Cipollone (x2), Nagel, Santos Pereira, but all eyes on Fed Powell.

• Looking more at the breakdown air fares contributed -0.17ppt to headline CPI and package holidays -0.03ppt while restaurants and accommodation both added 0.06ppt each.
• The contributions to services are roughly double those.
• There were no real other hugely notable moves.
• So overall, not much in here again to alter expectations of where the peak in CPI will come (which is expected in the September print we will receive next month).