US TSYS: Post-Claims, GDP React: 5s30s Curve New 3Y Highs
Mar-27 12:38
- Tsy futures remain weaker, off late overnight lows after weekly claims come out near in-line with expectations, continuing claims lower than expected while prior also down-revised. GDP near expectations, Personal Consumption a little lower than expected as are Wholesale/Retail Inventories.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-12.5 (-5.5) vs. 110-06 low, initial technical support below at 110-06.5/06 (50-day EMA/Intraday low). Curves extend steeper levels, 2s10s +2.559 at 35.663 (36.588 high), while 5s30s currently +1.106 at 61.489 after climbing to 62.279 -- steepest level since early January 2022.
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USD: Greenback Slips Lower, Following Yields to New Daily Lows
Feb-25 12:34
Infitting with the dip to new pullback lows in the 10yr yield, the USD is edging to the lowest levels of the day. Interestingly, this is somewhat counter to the price action observed at the European equity open, which saw yields dip, and the USD gain on presumably safe haven flow.
- The fresh demand for US Treasuries is still likely tied to trade tariff worry, but the further tailwind from month-end extensions the futures roll will mean USD is not benefiting from any safe haven buying, or inflationary concerns over tariffs.
- The 15-min candle chart shows EUR/USD's rally putting the price within range of layered resistance between the 1.0500 handle and 1.0506, but resistance seen firmer into 1.0528, above which we see new YTD highs.
- EUR/GBP remains rangebound - exposing the latest leg higher as USD-based, while markets look to PM Starmer set to address parliament imminently.
STIR: SFIK5 95.75/95.85/95.90 1x3x2 Call Fly Lifted
Feb-25 12:30
SFIK5 95.75/95.85/95.90 1x3x2 call fly paper pays 2.5 on 4K all day.
US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: June'25 SOFR Call Spread
Feb-25 12:29
- Total 17,500 SFRM5 96.25/96.87 call spreads at 3.0 ref 95.89 over the last few minutes (0717ET-0718ET)
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