EM LATAM CREDIT: Petrobras CEO Braskem Views

Jun-06 13:21

(BRASKM; Ba3/BBneg/BB+)

""Braskem's management is not what we want", Chambriard said" - Reuters

Petrobras CEO Chambriard lamented that the company has a 47% voting stake in Braskem and yet has no management control. Petrobras has appointed only four of its 11 board members and only one director out of seven which it deems insufficient.

The company is seeking changes to the shareholders agreement that would give it more influence over decision making, according to Reuters.

Chambriard was pleased with billionaire businessman Nelson Tanure's bid for the company as it would fit nicely into her vision for a restructuring. Petrobras does not want control over Braskem and does not plan to renationalize the company, according to the Reuters interview conducted with Chambriard yesterday.

We think a management shakeup is coming at some point as performance has disappointed for many years and the market could react positively.

The banks holding Braskem stock as collateral for defaulted Odebrecht loans probably don't want to sell at the currently depressed stock price that Tanure has highlighted and might prefer to restructure the company to boost the stock price and then sell. They seem to have vocal and outspoken support from Chambriard if it can be engineered.

Please see our negative take on 1Q 2025 earnings posted last month for more information: https://mni.marketnews.com/4kxCk2I

BRASKM 2034 notes were last quoted T+611bps, 83 bps wider since the May 12 earnings release, 167bps wider QTD and 201bps wider YTD.

Historical bullets

EQUITIES: Stoxx600 call buyer

May-07 13:13

SXXP (20th June) 557.5c, bought for 1.6 and 1.7 in ~15k.

ITALY DATA: Weak Retail Sales Momentum Suggests Consumption Drag In Q1

May-07 13:13

Weak Italian retail sales momentum suggests sequential quarterly household consumption growth was tepid - possibly negative – in Q1. 

  • March nominal retail sales fell 0.5% in March. The three analysts submitting forecasts for the print were between +0.1 and +0.3%. Real sales were also -0.5% M/M, the fifth negative sequential print in the last six months. That dragged 3m/3m growth down to -0.59% (vs -0.42% prior).
  • ISTAT retailer confidence has been expansionary throughout the last 3 years, but momentum has been waning in 2025.
  • Although the Q1 flash GDP report indicated that domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, a detailed split across expenditure component was not available.   
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CROSS ASSET: Estoxx Futures closes the Gap, Bund test a new high

May-07 13:09
  • Estoxx futures has now closed the Opening gap down to 5209.00, not a Tech level.
  • This latest push lower helps Bund print a new intraday high, but no real trigger for the move, mostly some order related flow, and a continuation since Bond went bid post the French Auctions this Morning.
  • Support in VGM5 is at 5178.00, this is only Yesterday's low.