EM LATAM CREDIT: Petrobras CEO Braskem Views

SXXP (20th June) 557.5c, bought for 1.6 and 1.7 in ~15k.

Weak Italian retail sales momentum suggests sequential quarterly household consumption growth was tepid - possibly negative – in Q1. 

• March nominal retail sales fell 0.5% in March. The three analysts submitting forecasts for the print were between +0.1 and +0.3%. Real sales were also -0.5% M/M, the fifth negative sequential print in the last six months. That dragged 3m/3m growth down to -0.59% (vs -0.42% prior).
• ISTAT retailer confidence has been expansionary throughout the last 3 years, but momentum has been waning in 2025.
• Although the Q1 flash GDP report indicated that domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, a detailed split across expenditure component was not available.   

• Estoxx futures has now closed the Opening gap down to 5209.00, not a Tech level.
• This latest push lower helps Bund print a new intraday high, but no real trigger for the move, mostly some order related flow, and a continuation since Bond went bid post the French Auctions this Morning.
• Support in VGM5 is at 5178.00, this is only Yesterday's low.