EM LATAM CREDIT: Pemex: Overdue Debt to Suppliers - Negative
(PEMEX; B3neg/BBB/BB)
"Pemex will not pay overdue debts to suppliers; it will only cover new contracts through 2025." - Proceso
Mexico raised USD12bn of off-balance sheet structured financing a few weeks ago for the benefit of Pemex. Additionally, there is a USD13bn special fund for 2025 projects and a lower tax burden all designed to fund capital expenditures and pay debt coming due.
It seems based on a document obtained by local news outlet Proceso that past due debts to suppliers and providers will not be covered by these new funds and that we view as negative as it lowers the incentive necessary to make resources available to increase production.
The government said it wants to streamline the process of paying suppliers and shorten payment times in line with international standards but this will only be applied going forward and won't address 2024 overdue debts. That is not very encouraging to suppliers and oil service providers.
We would prefer to see suppliers paid to encourage them to bring resources back on line to increase production and lead to Pemex becoming a viable company again able to fund itself independently.
PEMEX 50s were last quoted USD85.57 down .18 today, up 7 points QTD and up 10 points YTD.
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US: Trump To Speak At Energy And AI Roundtable Shortly
President Donald Trump is shortly due to speak at a roundtable focused on energy and artificial intelligence at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. LIVESTREAM
- CBS reports: "The Inaugural Pennsylvania Energy and Innovation Summit, organized and hosted by Republican U.S. Sen. Dave McCormick [R-PA], will also be attended by leaders of many of the country's largest energy and technology companies. McCormick is set to announce billions of dollars in new investments into energy and innovation in the state. Among them will be the construction of data centers to help provide the enormous amounts of energy needed to power AI."
- McCormick said in a statement to Axios: "President Trump has put together a bold strategy to strengthen and maintain America's AI and energy dominance," noting that the summit "is the first of its kind to convene the top CEOs and leaders from energy, AI, labor, and the world's largest sources of capital, demonstrating that Pennsylvania is ready to lead in the AI and energy revolution."
- Among the executives expected to attend, per Axios: ExxonMobil's Darren Woods, Chevron's Mike Wirth, BlackRock's Larry Fink, Palantir's Alex Karp, Anthropic's Dario Amodei, Amazon Web Services' Matt Garman, Bechtel's Brendan Bechtel, Bridgewater's Nir Bar Dea, GIC's Lim Chow Kiat (Singapore), Brookfield's Bruce Flatt, CPP Investments' John Graham and EQT's Toby Rice.
USDJPY TECHS: Clearing Key Resistance
- RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
- RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2
- RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
- RES 1: 149.02 High Jul 15
- PRICE: 148.97 @ 16:40 BST Jul 15
- SUP 1: 146.86 Low Jul 14
- SUP 2: 145.30 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 144.23/142.68 Low Jul 7 / 1
- SUP 4: 142.12 Low May 27 and a key short-term support
A short-term bull cycle in USDJPY strengthened and today’s gains reinforce current conditions. The post-CPI price action marks an extension of the bull leg that started Jul 1. The rally has resulted in a break of resistance at 148.03, the Jun 23 high and next key resistance at 148.65, the May 12 high. The break here strengthens the bull theme and opens 149.38, a Fibonacci retracement. On the downside, support to watch is 145.20, the 50-day EMA.
US TSY FUTURES: Testing Support, Focus on June PPI Inflation Data
- Treasury futures are extending lows in the last few minutes, Sep'25 10Y futures -15.5 at 110-09, through support at 110-10.5 (Low Jun 16). Next level to watch: 110-03 (76.4% retracement of the May 22 - Jul 1 bull leg).
- Futures have been holding to a lower, narrow band since midmorning - better than average volumes (TYU5 over 1.66M) sees a modest pick up in selling in the last hour. Curves flatter, but well off early lows: 2s10s -.687 at 52.452 (46.396 low), 5s30s -2.342 at 96.329 (64.760 low).
- Futures had rejected the initial post-CPI rally (TYU5 110-30 high) as markets woke up to the fact there were clear signs that tariffs are starting to show up in the core goods data. Higher than expected Empire Mfg contributed to the sell-off at the margins.
- Cross asset roundup: Bbg US$ index near highs (BBDXY +5.55 at 1208.05) after broader increase in core goods across 56 items for a second month, with a median increase of 0.44% M/M in June is another marked acceleration, threatening to delay the Fed hitting their inflation target.
- Stocks near steady (SPX eminis) to mixed, the Nasdaq outperforming (+147.0 at 20787), buoyed by chip makers after Nvidia green-lighted for exports to China. Gold weaker (-14.32 at 3329.19), crude lower (WTI -0.52 at 66.46).
- Look ahead: June PPI data tomorrow morning followed by several Fed speakers before the Late Friday's policy Blackout starts.
