LOOK AHEAD: Payrolls Headlines US Data For The Week

• Treasury futures are near late session lows, curves bear flattening as projected rate cuts into year end continue to cool after Chairman Powell said the FOMC has not yet made a decision on what it will do at its next policy meeting in September, adding that current policy is appropriate and there is lots of data between now and then.
• Projected rate cut pricing retreated vs. this morning/pre-data (*) levels: Sep'25 at -11.8bp (-16.9bp), Oct'25 at -21.4bp (-29.1bp), Dec'25 at -37.1bp (-46.6bp), Jan'26 at -45.6bp (--55.6bp). Year end projection well off early July level of appr -65.0bp.
• Treasury futures had pared losses after the FOMC kept rate steady as Fed Govs Waller & Bowman dissented in favor of a 25bp cut. "The majority of the Committee was of the view that inflation is a bit above target, maximum employment is at target" Powell said. "That calls for modestly restrictive, in my way of thinking, modestly restrictive stance right now."
• Futures extended well past this morning's ADP/GDP/Core-PCE lows: Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades -10 at 111-01.5 vs. 110-30.5 low (111-14.5 high). Key support is 110-08+, the Jul 14 and 16 low. Clearance of this level would reinstate a bearish theme. First support is at 110-19+, the Jul 24 low. Curves shift to flatter: 2s10s -1.814 at 43.131, 5s30s -1.397 at 94.131.
• Cross asset: Stocks retreating (SPX eminis -20.0 at 6386.0), Gold weaker at 3271.82, Bbg US$ index remains well bid: 1218.99 (+9.01).

• RES 4: 177.08 2.000 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing 
• RES 3: 175.43 High Jul 11 ‘24 and a key medium-term resistance
• RES 2: 174.86 1.764 proj of the Feb 28 - Mar 18 - Apr 7 price swing
• RES 1: 172.32/173.97 High Jul 29 / 28 and the bull trigger 
• PRICE: 170.66 @ 19:59 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 170.58 Low Jul 30
• SUP 2: 169.77 Low Jul 7
• SUP 3: 169.45 23.6% retracement of the Feb 28 - Jul 28 bull leg  
• SUP 4: 168.99 50-day EMA   

The bullish trend condition in EURJPY remains intact and for now a pullback is considered corrective. The cross has traded through the 20-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would signal scope for a deeper correction and highlight potential for a move towards the 50-day EMA, at 168.99 - a key support. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position highlighting an uptrend. A break of Monday's 173.97 high would resume the bull cycle.  

• RES 4: 151.21 High Mar 28
• RES 3: 150.49 High Apr 2 
• RES 2: 149.38 50.0% retracement of the Jan 10 - Apr 22 bear leg
• RES 1: 149.31 High Jul 30
• PRICE: 149.25 @ 19:55 BST Jul 30
• SUP 1: 147.07 20-day EMA
• SUP 2: 146.20/145.86 50-day EMA / Low Jul 24
• SUP 3: 145.16 61.8% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 144.21 76.4% retracement of the Jul 1 - 16 bull cycle  

A bull cycle in USDJPY remains in place, strengthened by the break of the bull trigger Wednesday. The level, at 149.18, the Jul 16 high, confirms a resumption of the uptrend. Pivot support to monitor is 146.20, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of it would instead signal scope for stronger reversal. First support is at 147.07, the 20-day EMA.