ASIA STOCKS: Outsized Inflow into Taiwan Yesterday
May-15 02:07
Taiwan has now enjoyed US$6.7bn of inflows in the last nine trading days as the TWD rallies over 5% and the TAIEX up almost 5%.
- South Korea: Recorded inflows of +$369m as of yesterday, bringing the 5-day total to +$597m. 2025 to date flows are -$11,462m. The 5-day average is +$119m, the 20-day average is +$1m and the 100-day average of -$130m.
- Taiwan: Had inflows of +$1,536m as of yesterday, with total inflows of +$3,591m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$11,758. The 5-day average is +$718m, the 20-day average of +$330m and the 100-day average of -$138m.
- India: Had inflows of +$19m as of the 13th, with total inflows of +$850m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative -$10,868m. The 5-day average is +$170m, the 20-day average of +$254m and the 100-day average of -$125m.
- Indonesia: Had outflows of -$34m as of yesterday, with total outflows of -$237m over the prior five days. YTD flows are negative -$3,286m. The 5-day average is -$47m, the 20-day average -$56m and the 100-day average -$36m
- Thailand: Recorded inflows of +$13m as of yesterday, outflows totaling -$58m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$1,678m. The 5-day average is -$12m, the 20-day average of -$14m the 100-day average of -$18m.
- Malaysia: Recorded inflows of +$114m as of yesterday, totaling +$406m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$2,181m. The 5-day average is +$81m, the 20-day average of +$31m and the 100-day average of -$25m.
- Philippines: Saw inflows of $6m as of yesterday, with net inflows of +$28m over the past 5 days. YTD flows are negative at -$213m. The 5-day average is +$6m, the 20-day average of +$4m the 100-day average of -$3m.
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AUSSIE BONDS: Richer, Little Changed After Minutes, RBA Remains Cautious
Apr-15 01:51
ACGBs (YM +2.0 & XM +7.0) are little changed after the release of the RBA Minutes for the April Meeting. In summary:
- The Board judged that economic conditions were broadly in line with forecasts, with inflation gradually declining and the labour market still tight. Risks to the outlook were seen as balanced, including global trade uncertainty and domestic factors like wages and productivity.
- Given this, the Board decided to keep the cash rate unchanged, emphasising the need for caution. Future decisions will depend on incoming data, especially on inflation, employment, and global developments.
- The Board reiterated its commitment to bringing inflation back to target without sacrificing gains in employment and stressed the importance of flexibility in policy
- Members discussed the staff’s latest assessment of the pace at which the RBA’s holdings of government bonds were running down. The current approach is to hold these bonds until maturity.
- Cash US tsys are 1-3bps richer, with a flattening bias, in today’s Asia-Pac session.
- Cash ACGBs are 2-7bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -2bps.
- The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +4.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is flat to 4bps softer across meetings today. A 50bp rate cut in May is given a 39% probability.
FOREX: NZD and AUD Outperforming, Kiwi Above 200-day MA
Apr-15 01:34
NZD and AUD both outperforming in the G10 space, led by the Kiwi. Both currencies are through their respective highs from Monday, albeit the NZD more convincingly. NZD/USD was last near 0.5900, above its simple 200-day MA, see the chart below. AUD/USD was above 0.6340, with headlines from the RBA Minutes crossing. The RBA is maintaining a cautious tone around the timing further rate cuts.
- Generally green Asia Pac equity trends are helping the Kiwi and AUD, with the MSCI Asia Pac index up 1%, while US equity futures are back close to flat. We were down close to 0.50% at one stage in the first part of trade.
Fig 1: NZD/USD Testing Above Simple 200-day MA
Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg
CHINA: Central Bank Drains Liquidity during OMO
Apr-15 01:31
- The PBOC issued CNY164.5bn of 7-day reverse repo at 1.5% during this morning’s operation.
- Today’s maturities CNY167.4bn
- Net liquidity withdrawal CNY2.9bn.
- The PBOC monitors and maintains liquidity through the issuance of reverse repo.
- The CFETS Pledged Repo Deposit Institutions 7 Day Weighted Average is at 1.51%, from 1.70% yesterday.
- The China Overnight interbank repo rate is at 1.65%, from 1.50% yesterday.
- The China 7-day interbank repo rate is at 1.72%, from 1.70% yesterday.
