OIL: Oil Prices Holding Recent Rally
Jan-03 07:34
Oil is flat on Friday holding up the latest recovery as Brent rallied above its 100-day moving average supported by U.S. stock draws.
- Brent MAR 25 down 0% at 75.91$/bbl
- WTI FEB 25 down 0% at 73.12$/bbl
- Gasoil JAN 25 down -0.5% at 707$/mt
- WTI-Brent unchanged at -3.41$/bbl
- The 2025 outlook for oil remains uncertain ahead of a Trump presidency and expectations for global oil oversupply.
- China data disappointed this week. The Caixin manufacturing PMI for December showed growth but at a slower than expected pace at 50.5 down from 51.5 in November, and below consensus at 51.7.
- OPIS oil analyst Tom Kloza said on Thursday, “today’s rally in crude “may have much to do with the rebalancing of huge commodity funds in coming days”
- U.S. crude stocks fell while gasoline and distillate inventories rose sharply as demand weakened in the week ending December 27, the EIA said on Thursday.
- The market is looking at upcoming crude prices from top oil exporter Saudi Arabia. It may raise crude prices for Asian buyers in February for the first time in three months a Reuters poll said this week.
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Historical bullets
USD: The Yen is extending broader lows
Dec-04 07:32
- The Australian GDP miss overnight has put the Aussie as the worst performer in G10 against the Dollar overnight, but the Greenback is overall mixed going into the European session.
- AUD is down 0.74% but off its worst level, after finding some support just ahead of 0.6400, printed a 0.6408, lowest print since the 5th August, as Market Participants and Investors look for RBA cuts.
- Given the expected no confidence vote in France later today, the EUR is fairly stable against the Dollar, and has fully reversed Yesterday big sell off led by the South Korea's President Martial announcement, which was quickly reversed.
- EURJPY has now fully cleared Yesterday's high of 157.98, and is extending highs, with broader JPY selling going through.
- Next resistance in EURJPY is seen at 158.64.
GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Support
Dec-04 07:24
- RES 4: $2790.1 - High Oct 31 and the bull trigger
- RES 3: $2750.0 - High Nov 5
- RES 2: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 1: $2721.4 - High Nov 25
- PRICE: $2644.6 @ 07:23 GMT Dec 4
- SUP 1: $2605.3/2564.4 - Low Nov 26 / 18
- SUP 2: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
- SUP 3: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12
- SUP 4: $2472.0 - Low Sep 4
Gold is unchanged and is trading inside a tight range, for now. The long-term trend condition remains bullish and the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg appears to have been a correction. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Resistance to watch is $2721.4, the Nov 25 high. Clearance of this level would highlight a bullish short-term development. Key support to monitor is $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
BUNDS: Supply, US Data and France politics are at the forefront Today
Dec-04 07:20
- Bund sees the December Month still as the most active, but expect for this to start changing into March later today, with the vast majorityl of the Eurex spreads likely fully completed by the end of day.
- Yesterday's support in RXZ4 was seen at 134.94 initially, held Yesterday, and tested overnight, only managed a 134.91 low going into the European Cash session.
- A clear through that area opens back to 134.33.
- The upside is unchanged, while it printed a 135.46 high Yesterday, main target is at 135.72 (2.00% in Yield).
- Today's Services PMIs will be final reading for France, Germany, EU, UK and US, There'll be more focus on the US ADP and especially the US ISM services this afternoon.
- Plenty of Focus on France later this afternoon also, with Barnier set to be ousted.
- SUPPLY: UK £4bn 2031 (equates to 25.2k Gilt) could weigh, German €3.5bn 10yr Bund (equates to 29.9k Bund) could weigh.
- SPEAKERS: ECB Lagarde, Cipollone, Makhlouf, Nagel, BoE Bailey, Fed Powell, Musalem, Barkin, Daly.
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