GOLD: Off Lows As Dec 2024 Trendline Provides Support
Spot gold fell to a session low of $3,311.7 following the stronger-than-expected US NFP print, but has since moved away from session lows (in tandem with a pullback in the dollar index) to $3,331.8. Spot remains 0.75% lower on the session, but notably found support at the trendline drawn from the December 2024 low.
- Although this trendline was breached last Friday, the solid recovery in gold this week has raised the prospect of a false break. Today’s price action reinforces this idea.
- Initial resistance is today's session high of $3,365.8, clearance of which would expose the June 16 high at $3,451.3.
- Key support and the bear trigger remains the June 30 low at $3,248.7.
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US TSYS: Post-JOLTS, Orders Data React
- Treasury pare gains after much higher than expected JOLTS job gains, quits level lower than anticipated while layoffs level comes out higher. Factory orders, durables near expectations.
- Tsy Sep'25 10Y futures currently trades +7 at 110-22 vs. 110-20 immediately after the release, vs. 110-26.5 high. A bear cycle remains in play for now, and recent short-term gains still appear corrective. Sep'25 contract has breached an important resistance at 110-23, the May 16 high. A clear break of this level would undermine a bearish theme and highlight a stronger reversal, exposing 111-05+, the May 9 high.
- On the downside, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on 109-12+, May 22 low.
- Curves flatter: 2s10s -2.174 at 47.946, 5s30s -1.076 at 94.784
- Cross asset: Stocks steady - near top of range (SPX eminis +2.0 at 5945.25), Gold lower at 3334.23, Bbg US$ index bounces to 1213.92 (+5.16).
NETHERLANDS: PM Confirms Resignation Of Cabinet Setting Stage For Snap Election
After a two-hour cabinet meeting Prime Minister Dick Schoof has confirmed that he will travel to the Huis ten Bosch in The Hague to offer the resignation of the cabinet to King Willem-Alexander. This follows the collapse of the four-party governing coalition earlier on 3 June. The right-wing nationalist Party for Freedom (PVV) withdrew from gov't after party leader Geert Wilders failed to get his coalition partners to agree to a new 10-point asylum programme (see 'NETHERLANDS: Wilders Pulls PVV Out Of Coaltion Amid Asylum Rule Row', 0845BST and 'NETHERLANDS: Cabinet To Meet @ 13:30CET To Assess Path After PVV Withdrawal', 1001BST).
- Schoof will remain in place as caretaker prime minister, while all non-PVV ministers will retain their positions in an administration that will deal with day-to-day functions of gov't. This is until snap elections and a new gov't comes to power. A minimum of around two months is needed between the collapse of a gov't and election day to allow for preparations and campaigning, although in practice this can take several months.
- Wilders has confirmed that he will remain in frontline politics, saying, "In fact, I am going to become prime minister of the Netherlands next time and ensure that the PVV becomes bigger than ever in the next elections." As part of the previous governing agreement, no party leaders were allowed to sit in the cabinet, instead remaining on the parliamentary benches.
- Schoof called the PVV's withdrawal "irresponsible and unnecessary", with an eye on the NATO leaders' summit being hosted by the Dutch gov't in The Hague at the end of June.
MNI: US APR FACTORY ORDERS -3.7%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS -0.5%
- MNI: US APR FACTORY ORDERS -3.7%; EX-TRANSPORT NEW ORDERS -0.5%
- US APR DURABLE ORDERS -6.3%
- US APR NONDEFENSE CAP GOODS ORDERS EX AIRCRAFT -1.5%
