US: NY Fed: Weekly Economic Index (WEI)
NY Fed explains the latest WEI increase to 1.83% from 1.62% the week prior is "due to rises in tax withholding and consumer confidence and a decline in initial unemployment insurance claims, which more than offset falls in retail sales, steel production, railroad traffic, and fuel sales. Electricity output remained the same. The entire Weekly Economic Index series was revised to reflect the annual revision to GDP and weights estimated through the second quarter of 2023."
NY Federal Reserve/MNI
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PIPELINE: Corporate Issuance Roundup: September Surge
With corporate earnings in the rearview mirror, a backlog of corporate debt issuance is accelerating. Total high-grade issuance for the month of August 2023 was only $79.45B -- compares to over $50B estimated for the first week of September alone.
- Partly seasonal, a return from summer market malaise, coupled with expectation the Federal Reserve is at or at least near the end of it's tightening cycle has reignited expectation of heavy supply. Some sales desks estimated last week the start of September would be the largest in years.
- Largely so: (Full monthly breakdown below) with
- Total Sep '22 $105.25B
- Total Sep '21 $215.635B
- Total Sep '20 $207.82B
- Historical issuance summary for the last three years: January kicked off 2023 with total of $231.425B high-grade corporate issuance, highest since March '22. Total 2022 high-grade corporate US$ issuance at $1.284T, well off $1.879T in 2021 and record $2.196T for 2020. LINK
CANADA: Median Analyst Sees First BoC Cut In April 2024
- Bloomberg has updated its analyst survey ahead of tomorrow’s BoC decision.
- It shows that whilst the BoC is almost unanimously expected to remain on hold tomorrow, there are still some analysts looking for further hikes including GS and JPM and indicated in the MNI BoC Preview published earlier today (see here)
- The first median cut is seen coming with the April decision, unchanged from the survey taken Aug 11-16 prior to softer than expected GDP growth although a collection period of Aug 28 - Sep 1 will have made it tight to have captured the softer GDP data on Sep 1.
- Cuts are seen building to a cumulative 100bp to 4% by Dec’24 before a split between 50-75bps of additional cuts thereafter to June 2025.
US TSYS: US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.300%(ALLOT 21.28%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: HIGH 5.300%(ALLOT 21.28%)
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DEALERS TAKE 34.31% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: DIRECTS TAKE 2.57% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: INDIRECTS TAKE 63.13% OF COMPETITIVES
- US TSY 26W BILL AUCTION: BID/CVR 3.02
