NATGAS: NORWAY GAS UPDATE: Recovery Expected After Sep. 18
Sep-12 14:30
Peak Norwegian gas maintenance is expected to continue into early next week but a gradual return of capacity after Sep. 18 should help boost European imports ahead of winter.
- Focus will be on the timely return of capacity at the fields and plants with any significant unplanned delays providing upside price risk.
- Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are today down to 217.1mcm/d, the lowest since a brief drop in June and compared to an average of 249mcm/d so far in Sep., Bloomberg shows. Pre maintenance supply levels were around 320mcm/d.
- Gassco shows total planned and unplanned outages of more than 122mcm/d until Sep. 18, gradually falling over the following week to unavailable capacity of just 19.6mcm/d on Sep. 25.
- See table below for current planned and unplanned unavailable capacity (source: Gassco events - fields and processing plants)
| Affected Asset or Unit | Event Start | Event Stop | Technical Capacity | Available Capacity | Unavailable Capacity |
| Dvalin | 22/08/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 6.8 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Sleipner | 28/08/2025 | 20/09/2025 | 13.5 | 0 | 13.5 |
| Troll | 30/08/2025 | 19/09/2025 | 125.8 | 62.8 | 63 |
| Kollsnes | 30/08/2025 | 11/09/2025 | 158 | 80 | 78 |
| Kollsnes | 30/08/2025 | 19/09/2025 | 158 | 80 | 78 |
| Nyhamna | 2/09/2025 | 21/09/2025 | 79.8 | 60 | 19.8 |
| Dvalin | 8/09/2025 | 15/09/2025 | 7.3 | 0 | 7.3 |
| Kårstø | 9/09/2025 | 11/09/2025 | 97.6 | 87 | 10.6 |
| Nyhamna | 9/09/2025 | 10/09/2025 | 79.8 | 40 | 39.8 |
| Oseberg | 11/09/2025 | 14/09/2025 | 25 | 9 | 16 |
| Kårstø | 11/09/2025 | 12/09/2025 | 97.6 | 87 | 10.6 |
| Oseberg | 12/09/2025 | 13/09/2025 | 25 | 0 | 25 |
| Oseberg | 14/09/2025 | 23/09/2025 | 25 | 14 | 11 |
| Norne | 14/09/2025 | 15/09/2025 | 4.9 | 0 | 4.9 |
| Kollsnes | 18/09/2025 | 22/09/2025 | 158 | 142 | 16 |
| Kårstø | 18/09/2025 | 5/10/2025 | 97.6 | 78 | 19.6 |
| Kollsnes | 19/09/2025 | 20/09/2025 | 158 | 135 | 23 |
| Troll | 19/09/2025 | 24/09/2025 | 125.7 | 109.7 | 16 |
| Nyhamna | 19/09/2025 | 20/09/2025 | 79.8 | 45 | 34.8 |
| Kårstø | 20/09/2025 | 1/10/2025 | 97.6 | 90 | 7.6 |
| Norne | 24/09/2025 | 25/09/2025 | 5 | 0 | 5 |
| Gullfaks | 24/09/2025 | 26/09/2025 | 15.3 | 9.7 | 5.6 |
| Kristin | 24/09/2025 | 25/09/2025 | 12.1 | 0 | 12.1 |
| Kårstø | 24/09/2025 | 25/09/2025 | 97.6 | 30 | 67.6 |
| Njord | 24/09/2025 | 30/09/2025 | 6.8 | 0 | 6.8 |
| Åsgard | 24/09/2025 | 25/09/2025 | 21.9 | 0 | 21.9 |
| Skarv | 24/09/2025 | 25/09/2025 | 16.9 | 0 | 16.9 |
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MNI: US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.04M TO 426.7M AUG 08 WK
Aug-13 14:30
- US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.04M TO 426.7M AUG 08 WK
- US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +0.71M TO 113.7M IN AUG 08 WK
- US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -0.79M TO 226.3M IN AUG 08 WK
- US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.04M TO 23.1M BARRELS IN AUG 08 WK
- US EIA: SPR +0.23M TO 403.2M BARRELS IN AUG 08 WK
- US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -0.5% TO 96.4% IN AUG 08 WK
OPTIONS: Expiries for Aug14 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
Aug-13 14:20
- EUR/USD: $1.1500(E2.8bln), $1.1590-00(E1.8bln), $1.1625-35(E829mln), $1.1645-50(E1.3bln), $1.1660-65(E943mln), $1.1695-02(E4.9bln), $1.1710-15(E1.2bln), $1.1750(E774mln)
- USD/JPY: Y145.00($924mln), Y146.00($616mln), Y146.65-85($1.0bln), Y147.00-20($1.3bln), Y148.15-30($1.2bln), Y149.00($1.2bln)
- GBP/USD: $1.2975-00(Gbp1.2bln)
- EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8690-05(E1.1bln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6575(A$516mln), $0.6600(A$1.3bln)
- NZD/USD: $0.6000-11(N$636mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.3860-70($768mln)
BONDS: Gilt/Bunds Continues To Oscillate Around 190bp
Aug-13 14:18
10-Year gilt/Bunds is ~3bp wider, as the spread continues to oscillate either side of 190bp.
- Zooming out, the multi-week range remains intact, with gilt bears unable to force a break above 200bp during a test back in July. The round number presents the initial meaningful upside target.
- Meanwhile, the August closing low at 184.9bp presents the initial downside area of interest.
- A hawkish round of UK labour market data (vs. expectations heading in) and last week’s BoE vote split-rhetoric combination removed some of the downside risks to the spread, although the likely slowing of BoE QT (announcement due in September) seemingly removes some widening risk.
- Elsewhere, ongoing UK fiscal fragility remains a key theme, but that is somewhat offset by German fiscal developments and related issuance risks over the medium-term.
- This has led to a relatively tight range for the spread in recent weeks.
