NATGAS: NORWAY GAS UPDATE: Recovery Expected After Sep. 18

• US EIA: CRUDE OIL STOCKS EX SPR +3.04M TO 426.7M AUG 08 WK
• US EIA: DISTILLATE STOCKS +0.71M TO 113.7M IN AUG 08 WK
• US EIA: GASOLINE STOCKS -0.79M TO 226.3M IN AUG 08 WK
• US EIA: CUSHING STOCKS +0.04M TO 23.1M BARRELS IN AUG 08 WK
• US EIA: SPR +0.23M TO 403.2M BARRELS IN AUG 08 WK
• US EIA: REFINERY UTILIZATION WEEK CHANGE -0.5% TO 96.4% IN AUG 08 WK

• EUR/USD: $1.1500(E2.8bln), $1.1590-00(E1.8bln), $1.1625-35(E829mln), $1.1645-50(E1.3bln), $1.1660-65(E943mln), $1.1695-02(E4.9bln), $1.1710-15(E1.2bln), $1.1750(E774mln)
• USD/JPY: Y145.00($924mln), Y146.00($616mln), Y146.65-85($1.0bln), Y147.00-20($1.3bln), Y148.15-30($1.2bln), Y149.00($1.2bln)
• GBP/USD: $1.2975-00(Gbp1.2bln)
• EUR/GBP: Gbp0.8690-05(E1.1bln)
• AUD/USD: $0.6575(A$516mln), $0.6600(A$1.3bln)
• NZD/USD: $0.6000-11(N$636mln)
• USD/CAD: C$1.3860-70($768mln)

10-Year gilt/Bunds is ~3bp wider, as the spread continues to oscillate either side of 190bp.

• Zooming out, the multi-week range remains intact, with gilt bears unable to force a break above 200bp during a test back in July. The round number presents the initial meaningful upside target.
• Meanwhile, the August closing low at 184.9bp presents the initial downside area of interest.
• A hawkish round of UK labour market data (vs. expectations heading in) and last week’s BoE vote split-rhetoric combination removed some of the downside risks to the spread, although the likely slowing of BoE QT (announcement due in September) seemingly removes some widening risk.
• Elsewhere, ongoing UK fiscal fragility remains a key theme, but that is somewhat offset by German fiscal developments and related issuance risks over the medium-term.
• This has led to a relatively tight range for the spread in recent weeks.