AUDUSD TECHS: Northbound

*IRAN STRIKES KUWAIT'S ALI AL SALEM BASE, BUBIYAN ISLAND: IRIB

• RES 3: 96.064 - 61.8% retracement Oct ‘25 - Mar Downleg (cont) 
• RES 2: 95.925 - High Jan 9 (cont) and a key resistance
• RES 1: 95.670 - High Jun 25 / 29 and the bull trigger
• PRICE: 95.425 @ 19:55 BST Jul 21
• SUP 1: 95.365 - Low Jun 09 and a key support
• SUP 2: 95.195 - Low Apr 30
• SUP 3: 94.577 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The M/T uptrend in Aussie 3-yr futures since Mar 23 is intact and the pullback since Jun 25 appears corrective. MA studies on the continuation chart are in a bull-mode position highlighting a dominant uptrend. However, the corrective cycle has resulted in a breach of 95.438, a trendline drawn from the Mar 23 low on the continuation chart. The next support to watch is 95.365, the Jun 9 low. Key resistance is 95.670, the Jun 25 and 29 high.

• Treasuries look to finish Tuesday's session near early lows - reversing early gains after wires reported Kuwait continued to deal with Iranian missile and drone attacks after several power and water de-salination plants were attacked late Monday.
• TYU6 trades -7 at 108-20.5 vs. -18.5 low, yield +.0384 to 4.6301%, key technical support lies at 108-08+, the May 19 low and a bear trigger. A clear breach of this level would confirm a resumption of the medium-term downtrend.
• ADP private employment increased an average 16.5k per week in the four weeks to Jul 4 in a continuation of its moderation from a high for the weekly series of 40.75k back in early May.
• Crude oil has seen further upside on Tuesday amid continued attacks in the Middle East and Houthi threats against vessels using Saudi ports. WTI Sep 26 is up by 2.2% at $84.3/bbl. At least six tankers have u-turned in the Red Sea since the Houthi warning on Monday, in which they made it clear that their blockade applied to all ships coming to and from Saudi ports.
• The renewed terms of trade impact from rising energy prices, alongside the associated shift higher for core global yields, has translated to USDJPY rising above 163.00 for the first time since 1986.
• Wednesday’s light calendar is highlighted by UK CPI, with the focus then shifting to Thursday’s Australian employment data and ECB decision and press conference.