POWER: Nordic April to Rebound on Hydro Balance, EU Power Gains
Nordic front-month power futures are expected to rebound today with support from a downward revision in the region’s hydro balances and support from neighbouring markets. Forecasts for milder weather are expected to cap gains.
- Nordic Base Power APR 25 closed up 0.3% at 35.85 EUR/MWh on 19 March.
- Germany Base Power APR 25 up 2% at 85.95 EUR/MWh
- EUA DEC 25 up 0.8% at 74.01 EUR/MT
- TTF Gas APR 25 up 2% at 44.235 EUR/MWh
- Nordic nuclear availability was stable on the day at 75% of capacity on Thursday morning, according to Bloomberg. 11 out of 10 units are online.
- Sweden’s 1.08GW Ringhals 3 nuclear plant is scheduled to return on 31 March with output currently curtailed at 537MW in an unplanned halt.
- The 1.12GW Forsmark 2 nuclear plant is scheduled to be offline until 20 March 23:59CET in an unplanned outage.
- Norway’s hydro balance has been revised lower on the day to end at 7.33TWh on 3 April, from 7.74TWh a day earlier.
- Sweden’s hydro balance has also been revised lower to end at 6.4TWh on 3 April, from 6.54TWh a day earlier.
- Forecasts for precipitation
- The latest two-week ECMWF weather forecasts for the Nordics suggested warmer-than-average temperatures trough the forecast period.
- Closer in, wind output in Norway is forecast to decline to 1.46W during base load on Friday, down from 2.07GW on Thursday. Output is forecast to rise back up over the weekend and the start of next week according to SpotRenewables.
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UK DATA: AWE and PAYE Wage Data Both Softer - But RTI Data Showing Trend Lower
- Looking at the change in private regular AWE (which came in at 6.22%Y/Y in the 3-months to December, a little lower than the 6.29% pencilled in by the BOE's MPR), we think that the slight downside surprise was broadly equally attributable to both the fresh December data and a downward revision to November.
- There was no revision to the high 6.68%Y/Y for the single month October print, but the single month November print was revised down to 5.90%Y/Y from 6.12%Y/Y (leaving the 3-month November print at 5.89%Y/Y, down from 5.96%). The single month print for December was 6.09%Y/Y.
- However, looking at the PAYE RTI wage data, there was a more meaningful revision and continued downside momentum. The flash estimate for January 2025 came in at 5.01%Y/Y - that is the lowest since April 2022. December was revised down to 5.20%Y/Y from 5.41%. Like in the AWE data there is a temporary spike higher in the October print.
- As can be seen from the chart below, the HMRC PAYE RTI median pay growth continues to trend downwards.
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GOLD TECHS: Trend Needle Points North
- RES 4: $3000.0 - Psychological round number
- RES 3: $2996.9 - 4.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 2: $2962.2 - 2.00 proj of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing
- RES 1: $2942.7 - High Feb 11 and the bull trigger
- PRICE: $2913.8 @ 07:19 GMT Feb 18
- SUP 1: $2864.2 - Low Feb 12
- SUP 2: $2833.2 - 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: $2807.3 - Low Feb 4
- SUP 4: $2756.5 - 50-day EMA
A bull cycle in Gold remains in play and the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of its recent gains. Fresh highs once again confirm a resumption of the uptrend and maintain the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Moving average studies are in a bull mode position too, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on the $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. The first key support to watch is $2833.2, the 20-day EMA.
