NOK: Nordea Cautious Of NOK Rebalancing Sales Into Month-End
Dec-20 13:00
Nordea see a risk of “a weaker NOK the coming week as Norwegian pension funds and insurance companies need to sell NOK in order to maintain their FX hedge ratio due to the decline in U.S. stocks and bonds through December. Poor liquidity during the Christmas holidays risks reinforcing any such move.”
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PIPELINE: US$ Corporate/Supra-Sovereign Debt Update
Nov-20 12:55
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 11/20 $600M Adani 20Y +7.45%
- 11/20 $Benchmark International Development Assn (IDA) 5Y SOFR+47
- 11/20 $Benchmark Commonwealth Bank of Australia (CBA) 2Y +50a, 2Y SOFR
- $12.25B Priced Tuesday, $23.1B/wk
- 11/19 $3B *Lloyds $1.25B 4NC3 +85, $750M 4NC3 SOFR+106, $1B 11NC10 +120
- 11/19 $2.65B *Alibaba $1B 5.5Y +65, $1.15B 10.5Y +90, $500M 30Y +105
- 11/19 $2.5B *Republic of Turkiye +5Y Sukuk 6.55%
- 11/19 $1.75B *National Australian Bank (NAB) $1B -3Y +38, $750M -3Y SOFR+60
- 1/19 $1.25B *Vistra Operations $500M 2Y +80, $750M 10Y +133
- 11/19 $600N *Corebridge Financial 40NC5 6.375%
- 11/19 $500M *Emirates NBD WNG 5Y Reg S +90
US TSY FUTURES: Treasury Quarterly Futures Roll Update
Nov-20 12:40
Tsy quarterly futures roll from Dec'24 to Mar'24 update below. Modest volumes this morning should start accelerating shortly as "First Notice" date on November 29 approaches. Current roll details:
- TUZ4/TUH5 appr 29,600 from -7.12 to -6.75, -6.88 last; 9% complete
- FVZ4/FVH5 appr 68,200 from -6.5 to -6.0, -6.0 last; 10% complete
- TYZ4/TYH5 appr 57,300 from -5.25 to -4.75, -5.0 last; 8% complete
- UXZU4/UXYH5 10,300 from -8.75 to -8.25, -8.25 last; 4% complete
- USZ4/USH5 1,900 from -5.25 to -4.25, -4.5 last; 14% complete
- WNZ4/WNH5 under 1,000 from -3.0 to -2.5, -3.0 last; 7% complete
- Reminder, December futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on December 19, 2s and 5s on December 22. December options expire November 22.
CANADA: Analysts Remain Evenly Split Between 25bp or 50bp Cut In Dec
Nov-20 12:35
Taking a broader sweep across analyst views, all of the below left their views unchanged as to whether the BoC will cut by 25bp or 50bp on Dec 11 after yesterday’s stronger than expected CPI print.
- It sees the ten analysts below evenly split between a 25bp or 50bp cut vs market pricing that shifted towards 33bp priced from ~36bp prior to the data.
- This week’s IPPI (Nov 21) and especially retail sales data (Nov 22) could see some reaction but main macro drivers are still to come with GDP for Q3 (Nov 29) and the jobs report for Nov (Dec 6) still to come.
- The below table shows their latest post-CPI view specifically for the December meeting plus their more detailed path laid out after last month’s BoC meeting. [GS are the only analyst with a different Dec view compared to that after the BoC decision. The view change from 25bp to 50bp came prior to the latest CPI data, whilst they noted that the CPI surprise "somewhat raises the risk of a smaller 25bp cut".]
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