US DATA: No Surprises In Jobless Claims Report
Feb-20 13:45
Jobless claims were close to expected, with initial claims pointing to no sign of deterioration from last month’s payrolls reference period (at a healthy level), and unsurprisingly no sign of an increase from DOGE cuts.
- Initial claims increased to 219k (sa, cons 215k) in the week to Feb 15 after an upward revised 214k (initial 213k).
- The four-week moving average dipped 1k to 215k for its lowest, a little further below the 218k averaged in 2019 that we often compare to for a previous period of labor market tightness.
- With this being the first reading at the week that coincides with the payrolls reference period for February, the 219k is close to recent reference periods including 223k for Jan, 220k for Dec and 215k for Nov.
- Continuing claims meanwhile increased to 1869k (sa, cons 1868k) in the week to Feb 8 after a downward revised 1845k (initial 1850k). The 1900k from mid-Jan remains the highest since late 2021.
- Within the details for those looking for DOGE cut impacts, there was unsurprisingly no notable increase in initial claims in Maryland, Virginia and Washington DC whilst continuing claims inched higher but at an orderly pace and firmly within recent ranges (see our 0806/07ET bullets on the matter, and how these would only show if contractors reliant on federal government were pushing for layoffs).
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US: Trump Press Secretary Teases "Massive" Infrastructure Announcement
Jan-21 13:43
US President Donald Trump's Press Secretary, Karoline Leavitt, told Fox News that Trump will make a "massive" infrastructure announcement on Tuesday. Bloomberg reports that the announcement is expected at 16:00 ET 21:00 GMT.
- Leavitt: "I can confirm the American people won't be hearing from me today because they'll be hearing from the leader of the free world, President Trump will be speaking to the press later this afternoon at the White House, and we will have a big infrastructure announcement."
- Leavitt declined to expand on the content of the announcement, however it could signal the Trump administration will seek to reclaim infrastructure as a key area of focus in light of former President Joe Biden's broadly popular Bipartisan Infrastructure Law.
- On the 2024 presidential election campaign trail, Democrats regularly referenced Trump's failure to enact meaningful infrastructure legislation as a net positive for Democrats.
- As the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law is popular amongst Republican lawmakers and voters, it is unlikely that Trump will seek to unwind or stall any of the legislation's implementation.
US: SFR Put Fly buyer
Jan-21 13:42
SFRM5 95.75/95.50/95.25p fly, bought for 2.5 in 1.5k.
CANADA: GoC Yields Soften On CAD CPI But USDCAD Unchanged
Jan-21 13:40
- GoC yields have fallen 2bps through 2-10Y tenors on the December CPI report (vs 1-1.5bps for Tsys) but USDCAD sees very little net impact.
- The Can-US 2Y yield differential at -138bps would be its lowest close this cycle at lows since the late 1990s.
- BoC-dated OIS meanwhile pushes a little closer to fully supporting a 25bp cut from the BoC next week, with ~21bp priced vs ~19bp pre-release.
- Main outturns very close to median expectations which was impressive considering the wide range of analyst views on the back of uncertainty over the impact from the temporary GST/HST tax holiday.
- Headline CPI came in at 1.8% Y/Y (BBG median 1.9, our survey of analysts 1.8) in a range that spanned from 1.2-2.1% Y/Y.
- The average of the BoC's preferred median and trim CPI was as expected at 2.45% Y/Y, averaging 2.6% in Q4 to confirm a beat of the 2.3% the BoC had forecast back in October. It will provide new forecasts next week.
