EUROPEAN INFLATION: No Progress In German Inflation Breadth In May
MNI's inflation breadth tracker (see chart below) shows disinflation overall stalling in May, with the percentage of ECOICOP (European classification of individual consumption according to purpose, a standardized category split) items printing at or below 1% falling 2.8pp to 40.0%. In the high-inflation categories, similar trends could be observed, with the percentage of categories above 5% rising 0.8pp to 15.6% in May.
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GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 91.54/91.67 range.
SWEDEN: Inflation Momentum Eases In April, But SA Run Rates Still Elevated
Swedish seasonally adjusted CPIF-ex energy inflation was 0.36% M/M in April, according to MNI’s calculations using the X-13 methodology. Averaging this year's March and April prints to correct for Easter timing effects gives a 0.23% M/M reading, still above the 2% target on an annualised basis and above the March/April 2024 average of 0.16%. However, 3m/3m momentum eased to 4.17% from 4.44% in March, which may be an early sign that the Q1 acceleration in spot inflationary pressures is in the rear-view.
- Ahead of the June decision, the Riksbank will be focused on inflation prints and business price plans in the Economic Tendency Indicator. These price plans remained elevated as of April.
- Domestic focus now turns to the Riksbank May meeting minutes at 0830BST/0930CET. It will be interesting to see what the appetite for a June cut is amongst the Executive Board, following the slight dovish guidance tilt in May. The Riksbank have emphasized that it views the Q1 acceleration in inflation as temporary.
EQUITIES: EU Cash Opening calls
Estox 50: +0.10%, Dax: +0.11%, CAC: +0.09%, FTSE -0.25%, SMI -0.38%.
