AUDUSD TECHS: Needle Still Points South
- RES 4: 0.7493 Apr 12 high and key intraday resistance
- RES 3: 0.7458 High Apr 20/21
- RES 2: 0.7331 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 0.7261 High Apr 25
- PRICE: 0.7103 @ 16:58 BST Apr 29
- SUP 1: 0.7055 Low Apr 28
- SUP 2: 0.6985 Low Jan 31
- SUP 3: 0.6968 Low Jan 28 and a bear trigger
- SUP 4: 0.6921 Low Jul 14 2020
AUDUSD remains bearish and traded lower again Thursday. The pair recently cleared support at 0.7165, Mar 15 low and a key short-term bear trigger. The break reinforces current bearish conditions and Thursday’s move lower resulted in a breach of 0.7095, the Feb 24 low. This opens 0.7052 next, the Feb 4 low. Initial resistance is seen at Monday’s intraday high of 0.7261. Firmer resistance however is set at 0.7331, the 50-day EMA.
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AUDUSD TECHS: Conditions Remain Bullish
- RES 4: 0.7617 High Jun 25
- RES 3: 0.7597/99 2.0% 10-dma envelope / High Jul 6 2021
- RES 2: 0.7556 High Oct 28 and a key resistance
- RES 1: 0.7540/65 High Mar 28
- PRICE: 0.7514 @ 16:35 GMT Mar 30
- SUP 1: 0.7450 Low Mar 23
- SUP 2: 0.7385/76 20-day EMA / Low Mar 22
- SUP 3: 0.7298 50-day EMA
- SUP 4: 0.7165 Low Mar 15 and a key support
AUDUSD remains below its recent YTD and multi-month highs. From a trend perspective, conditions are bullish. This follows last week’s move above 0.7441, Mar 7 high, marking an extension of the strong reversal from 0.7165, Mar 15 low. This also reinforces the current bull cycle that began Jan 28. The break of 0.7441 signals scope for a climb towards 0.7556, the Oct 28 high. Initial firm support is seen at 0.7376.
US: Late Corporate Credit Risk: IG5 Inches Higher Late
Corporate credit risk extends late session highs as equity indexes make new (albeit moderate) session lows -- SPX eminis still up for the week around 4590.0 (-35.5).
- Investment grade risk measured by Markit's CDXIG5 index currently +0.990 to 67.03; CDXHY5 high yield index mildly lower at 105.456 (-.321).
- Outperforming credit sectors (tighter or least wide): Financials (Sr) net +0.2 -- as broad swath of large banks/financial inst debt underperofming (GS, Blackstone, BGC< Prudential) balanced by improved risk for Nomura, Westpac, Mizuho, ING. Subordinated Financials tied w/ Technology and Communications sector +0.5-0.7.
- Lagging sectors (wider or least narrow): Health Care (+7.2) largely due to anomaly Boston Scientific (BSX) 5Y debt surging wider. Energy and Utilities a distant second (+1.2), Entergy Gulf States Louisiana debt underperforming.
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Extending Lows, Well Above 20D EMA Support
Stock indexes extending lows heading into the FI close -- modest unwind of Tue's rally in SPX, eminis still up for the week at 4591.0 (-34.5).
As has been the case for weeks, geopol headline risk tied to Russia war in Ukraine, nascent peace talks and troop (re)deployment an ongoing source of volatility for market.
- Rates inside range, near highs on mixed drivers including month end buying, technical support, trading desks posited earlier. No react from Tass headline:
- "South Ossetia to hold referendum on whether the Georgian breakaway region should become part of Russia"
- SPX eminis still trading well above key support: 4428.55, the 20-day EMA.
- On the flipside: Resistance at 4578.50, Feb 9 high has been cleared. The break opens 4663.50, Jan 18 high.
- Dow trades -135.67 (-0.38%) at 35160.3, and Nasdaq -149.1 (-1%) at 14470.93.
- SPX leading/lagging sectors: Energy sector gaining +0.91%, outpacing Utilities (+0.44%). Laggers: Consumer Discretionary (-1.48%) lead by weaker retail (-1.92%) and consumer durables (-1.37%) shares.
- Dow Industrials Leaders/Laggers: United Health (UNH) extends gains of +7.69 to 518.42, Walmart +2.32 at 149.55. Home Depot extends losses -10.41 to 307.30.
