US NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Lowest Since Early Dec
Jan-30 19:38
Henry Hub is on track for its lowest close since early December, as warmer weather offsets the-larger-than expected withdrawal from US natural gas storage.
- US Natgas MAR 25 down 4% at 3.04$/mmbtu
- US Natgas APR 25 down 4.2% at 3.07$/mmbtu
- The EIA weekly gas inventories for the week ending Jan. 24 showed a withdrawal of 321bcf.
- The seasonal five-year average shows a net withdrawal of around 189bcf.
- Total stocks are down to 2,571bcf and 144bcf below levels seen a year ago and 111bcf below the previous five-year average of 2,682bcf
- Lower 48 natural gas demand is below normal at 95.7bcf/d: Bloomberg.
- The NOAA 6–14-day forecast is relatively unchanged on the day with above normal temperatures forecast in the south.
- US domestic natural gas production is estimated at 105.4bcf/d today: Bloomberg.
- US LNG export terminal feedgas is at 14.50bcf/d today, according to Bloomberg.
- Venture Global LNG could finish power generator repairs by late February, paving the way for completion of Calcasieu Pass.
- Potential buyers from India, Japan, and Kuwait have already launched talks with US LNG exporters to purchase more from them amid the tariff threats of Present Trump.
- Shell CFO Sinead Gorman, speaking in a results call, confirmed that the first cargoes from the 14m mtpa LNG Canada project are expected by mid-2025, Platts reported.
- Shell CEO Wael Sawan warned that European gas storage levels could drop to 30% or lower.
- EPNG has identified anomalies in three valve-sections on Line No. 1103.
- LNG reload activity suggests China is reasonably comfortably stocked while industrial demand reduces during the Lunar New Year: ICIS.
- Gail India is seeking more LNG import deals, according to the latest earnings call.
- Operations at Malaysia’s Bintulu LNG facility continue uninterrupted after severe flooding.
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US TSYS: Tsy Curves Look To Finish 2024 at June'22 Highs
Dec-31 19:18
- Treasuries look to finish the last trading session of 2024 lower after reversing Tuesday morning support. Markets closed Wednesday for New Years day, resume full trade Thursday.
- The Mar'25 10Y contract trades 108-25.5 (-5.5) late in the day, 10Y yield near session high of 4.5871%. Curves bounced off flatter levels, 2s10s climbing to 34.344 -- the highest level since June 2022.
- Short end support, in turn, helped projected rate cuts into early 2025 gain momentum vs. late Monday levels (*) as follows: Jan'25 steady at -2.8bp, Mar'25 -14.6bp (-13.6bp), May'25 -20.6bp (-19.5bp), Jun'25 -29.8bp (-28.8bp).
- No substantive reaction to this morning's housing and regional Dallas Fed services activity data. Looking ahead to Thursday data (prior, est): Initial Jobless (219k, 221k) and Continuing Claims (1.910M, 1.890M) at 0830ET; S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI (48.3, 48.3) at 0945ET; Construction Spending MoM (0.4%, 0.3%) at 1000ET.
- Treasury supply: $85B 4- & $80B 8W bill auctions at 1130ET, $64B 17W bill auction at 1300ET.
COMMODITIES: WTI Futures, Gold Holding Higher
Dec-31 18:47
WTI futures are trading higher today as the contract extends recent gains. A stronger reversal to the upside would refocus attention on key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance is unchanged at $71.97. A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low.
- WTI Crude up $0.9 or +1.27% at $71.88
- Natural Gas down $0.32 or -8.13% at $3.618
- Gold spot up $19.24 or +0.74% at $2625.86
- Copper down $6.95 or -1.7% at $402.3
- Silver down $0.1 or -0.34% at $28.8383
- Platinum up $3.96 or +0.44% at $908.02
US STOCKS: Late Equity Roundup: Tech & Interactive Media Sectors Underperforming
Dec-31 18:36
- Stocks are trading near session lows after reversing early session gains. Though off this year's record highs (SPX Eminis 6178.75, DJIA 45,073.63, Nasdaq 20,204.58) major averages will finish the year with double digit gains: SPX Eminis +19.5%, DJIA +13.1%, while the Nasdaq gained 29.9%!
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 92.19 points (-0.22%) at 42474.46, S&P E-Minis down 28 points (-0.47%) at 5929.75, Nasdaq down 147 points (-0.8%) at 19337.13.
- Information Technology and Communication Services shares underperformed continued to underperform late Tuesday, shares of software and semiconductor makers weighing on the tech sector: Nvidia -1.61%, Advanced Micro Devices -1.36%, Crowdstrike Holdings -1.28%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares weighed on the Communication Services sector: Alphabet -0.9%, Live Nation -0.76%, Netflix -0.60%, Meta -0.41%.
- On the positive side, Energy and Materials sectors outperformed in the second half, oil & gas stocks buoyed the Energy sector as crude prices continued to rise (WTI +1.0 at 71.99): APA Corp +3.59%, Marathon Petroleum +2.46%, Occidental Petroleum +2.15%.
- Meanwhile, shares of chemical & fertilizer makers supported the Materials sector: Mosaic +2.44%, Celanese +1.42%, Dow +1.37%.
- Looking ahead, the next round of quarterly earnings kicks off mid-January with Blackrock, Bank of NY Melon, Wells Fargo, JP Morgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup, US Bancorp, M&T Bank and PNC all reporting between January 13-16.
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