NATGAS: Natural Gas End of Day Summary: Henry Hub Falls

Apr-16 18:08

Henry Hub is losing ground today despite a drop in daily production, likely driven by falling domestic demand due to milder spring weather. 

  • Henry Hub MAY 25 down 3.1% at $3.225/MMBtu
  • EIA Inventory Change Forecasts: +25 bcf (Bbg), +23 bcf (WSJ). +25 Bcf (Initial Reuters Storage Survey – subject to update)
  • Lower 48 natural gas demand is down 0.45 bcf/d to 73.7 bcf/d, and 1.8 bcf/d below the 30day average of 75.43 bcf/d.
  • The GFS 6z 15day forecast net added TDDs nationally.
  • US LNG export terminal feedgas is up 5 mmcf/d to 15.6 bcf/d, which is 2.02 bcf/d below the 30day average.
  • US domestic natural gas production is down 0.8 bcf/d to 105.2 bcf/d, down 1.6 bcf/d compared to the 30day average, according to BNEF.
  • European officials have dropped the idea of a ban on Russian LNG imports because of resistance from some member states and uncertainty around alternative sources, Reuters reported.
  • The pace of long-term LNG contract signings dropped sharply in Q1 2025, with only 11.4m mtpa secured- 42% lower on the year, Platts said.
  • Galp and BP lifted their first LNG cargooes from Venture Global’s Calcasieu Pass.
  • The quantity of LNG on tankers not unloaded for at least 20 days rose to 3.70m mt as of April 14 compared to 2.83m mt a week ago, Bloomberg said.
  • Germany’s private Baltic Sea LNG terminal has no more regasification slots available this year due to high demand for gas, Deutch Regas said.
  • Malaysia’s Bintulu LNG has an outage affecting at least three trains, according to Kayrros cited by Bloomberg.
  • BP’s Greater Tortue Ahmeyim FLNG has exported its first cargo, TradeWinds reports.
  • MNI Gas Weekly: Read Here

Historical bullets

PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Update: $4B BMW 6Pt, $2B Santander 3Pt Launched

Mar-17 18:07

$11B corporate bonds to price Monday

  • Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
  • 03/17 $4B #BMW US Capital $650M 2Y +65, $650M 2Y SOFR+78, $750M 3Y +75, $700M 3Y SOFR+92, $750M 5Y +97, $500M 10Y +115
  • 03/17 $2B #Santander $850M 4NC3 +145, $400M 4NC3 SOFR+161, $750M 6NC5 +165
  • 03/17 $1.8B #Oncor $500M 2Y +45, $650M 10Y +105, $650M 30Y +120
  • 03/17 $1.2B #Republic Services $500M 5Y +73, $700M 10Y +93
  • 03/17 $1B #Hyatt $500M 3Y +105, $500M 7Y +155
  • 03/17 $1B #Public Service Co of Colorado $400M 10Y +108, $600M 30Y +125

EURUSD TECHS: Bullish Theme Intact

Mar-17 18:00
  • RES 4: 1.1083 High Oct 2 2024  
  • RES 3: 1.1040 High Oct 4 2024
  • RES 2: 1.0961 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
  • RES 1: 1.0947 High Mar 11  
  • PRICE: 1.0920 @ 16:26 GMT Mar 17
  • SUP 1: 1.0766/1.0674 Low Mar 6 / 20-day EMA   
  • SUP 2: 1.0557 50-day EMA and a short-term pivot level      
  • SUP 3: 1.0471 Low Mar 4     
  • SUP 4: 1.0360 Low Feb 28 and a key support  

Trend conditions in EURUSD remain bullish and the pair is holding on to its recent gains. Moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Bulls have their sights on 1.0961 next, a Fibonacci retracement. A break of this level would strengthen the current uptrend. Initial key support to watch lies at 1.0557, the 50-day EMA. The uptrend is overbought, a pullback would allow this set-up to unwind.    

OPTIONS: Multiple Large May Bund Structures Feature

Mar-17 17:52

Monday's Europe rates/bond options flow included:

  • RXK5 129/130.5/132/133.5 call condor paper paid 0.335/0.345 on 20K.
  • RXK5 127/126 ps, bought for 33.5 in 10k.
  • RXK5 130c, bought for 49.5 in ~5.6k.
  • RXK5 126.50/125.50ps, bought for 33 in 7.75k.
  • ERJ5 97.875/98.00 call spread paper paid 2 on 10k
  • ERK5 97.62/97.50ps 1x2, bought for 1 in 15k.
  • ERM5 97.62/97.50ps bought for 1.75 in 16.5k.