EM CEEMEA CREDIT: National Bank of Kuwait: FV for PNC6 $ AT1
(NTBKKK; A1/A/A+)
IPT @ 6.875% area
FV @ 6.375% area
- We sketch our FV considerations at z+290bp or 6.375% area. To gain some perspective, we look at spread moves (+40bp) since Kuwait’s Warba Bank issued in $ AT1 format back in May (see chart below).
For comparables, we focus on recently issued $ AT1 bonds. The sub-benchmark deal brought by Warba Bank (WARBAB 6.25 PERP) is currently charting at z+270bp as per our screen feeds. We prefer to look at benchmark size Saudi Arabia’s Banque Sandi Fransi (BSFR 6.375 PERP) charting at z+300bp. We also like to consider larger size deals from Saudi Arabia’s Al Rajhi Bank, which has two benchmarks in Sukuk format, with the 6.25 PERP charting at z+260bp.
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MNI: SWISS Q1 GDP +0.5% Q/Q, +2% Y/Y
- MNI: SWISS Q1 GDP +0.5% Q/Q, +2% Y/Y
AUDUSD TECHS: Trading Above Support
- RES 4: 0.6603 High Nov 11 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.6582 High Nov 12 ‘24
- RES 2: 0.6550 61.8% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Apr 9 bear leg
- RES 1: 0.6537 High May 26
- PRICE: 0.6468 @ 07:57 BST Jun 2
- SUP 1: 0.6396/85 2.0% Lower 10-day Bollinger Band / 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: 0.6357 Low May 12
- SUP 3: 0.6275 Low Apr 14
- SUP 4: 0.6181 Low Apr 11
AUDUSD trend signals remain bullish and the pair continues to trade closer to its recent highs. Key support lies at 0.6385, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average is required to signal a potential short-term reversal. The pair has recently cleared a key short-term resistance at 0.6515, the May 7 high. This confirms a resumption of the uptrend. A continuation higher would open 0.6550, a Fibonacci retracement.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt Calls, 91.46/91.56, some suggest potential upside risks on the Calls.
