NATGAS: Gas Summary at European Close: TTF Gains Ground

TTF front-month prices are rising further since midday. Support comes from heightened geopolitical risks following Ukraine's missile strikes on Russia, coupled with ongoing cooler weather causing higher than average storage withdrawals

• TTF DEC 24 up 2.5% at 46.8€/MWh
• Cold temperatures in Europe in the coming days are forecast to return above normal over the coming weekend.
• European gas storage has fallen to 90.30% full on Nov. 18, according to GIE.
• Germany’s heavily criticized gas storage fee will increase after the countries parliament failed to scrap the levy in time due to political turmoil.
• Norwegian pipeline supplies to Europe are almost unchanged on the day at 340.2mcm/d today, according to Bloomberg.
• Any surge in European gas demand or curtailment of supply will primarily be met by additional storage withdrawals and secondarily by higher prices attracting additional LNG cargoes, according to OIES.
• The recent gas price jump in Europe after the OMV situation, colder weather and faster storage withdrawals than expected are pulling LNG cargoes from Asia.
• Egypt, the exporter turned importer, has surprised the LNG market this month, abruptly turning away several cargoes – a boost for European supply at a time of higher prices.
• Egypt is in talks for a 3–4-year LNG supply deal, Reuters said.
• The US arbitrage to NE-Asia remains closed as vessels continue to divert to Europe, according to Spark Commodities.
• LNG stockpiles held by Japanese utilities rose 3.17% w/w on Nov. 17 to 2.28m mt.
• Brazil is likely to switch from an LNG buyer to a seller in December, market sources said Nov. 20, Platts said.
• MNI Gas Weekly: Gazprom Shuts off OMV’s Supply: https://enews.marketnews.com/ct/x/pjJscVeLwuoI6a4xJBF3Gg~k1zZ8KXr-kA8x6mQWcOiptIPjL4SdA