COPPER TECHS: (N5) Bear Threat Still Present

Final opinion polling before the 3 May federal election shows, as has been the case for the duration of the campaign, PM Anthony Albanese's centre-left Australian Labor Party (ALP) set to retain its majority in the House of Representatives. On the primary vote, the ALP and the main opposition centre-right Liberal/National party coalition are within the margin of error in most polls, making them an effective dead heat. However, judged on the 'two-party-preferred-vote' polling, which attempts to distribute votes in the context of Australia's complex electoral system, the ALP has maintained a relatively steady lead in recent weeks (see charts below).

• The Australian election being viewed by some observers in a similar context to the 28 April Canadian federal election. While dealing with idiosyncratic policy issues, in both Canada and Australia, the Conservatives and the L/NP coalition have historically sat as pro-business, centre-right parties. However, under respective leaders Pierre Poilievre and Peter Dutton, both have moved in a more populist direction, a shift some have seen as an effort to emulate US President Donald Trump's (election-winning) style.
• However, polls have borne out that this shift has seen voters of the left who may not have usually been inclined to vote for moderate social democrats to swing behind the Liberals and Labor respectively, in order to shut the right out of power.
• Political betting data from Polymarket shows an 84% implied probability that Albanese retains power. It also shows bettors assigning a 42% implied probability that Dutton loses the Dickson, Qld. electorate he has held since 2001. 

Chart 1. Federal Election Opinion Polling, Primary Vote (LHS) and Two-Party-Preferred-Vote (RHS), % and 6-Poll Moving Average

Source: Essential, Roy Morgan, Resolve Strategic, YouGov, Newspoll, Redbridge/Accent, Freshwater Strategy, DemosAU, ANU, MNI

• Within the limited details of overall imports rising 5.0% M/M, consumer goods imports were the most notable, surging 27.5% M/M. In $ terms for a cleaner comparison, that amounted to $103bn in Mar after $81bn in Feb, $78bn in Jan and an average $67bn in 2024 (with a 2024 range of $62-72bn).
• Unless we’re missing something, this should see a significant mark lower in even gold-adjusted estimates of the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, even if only temporary if this is largely tariff front-running. GDPNow is due its final update for the quarter later today ahead of tomorrow’s advance Q1 GDP release.
• Imports of autos meanwhile, a category that was harder to front-load imports earlier this year under rising threats of tariffs, also increased 6.6% M/M in March to $41bn (highest since Apr 2024).
• Imports of industrial supplies on the other hand fell -13.5% M/M but are still historically elevated. This is a broad category that includes monetary gold (which shows under finished metal shapes only available with the full release, due May 6). Industrial supply imports stood at $74.6bn in Mar, pulling back from $86.2bn in Feb and $90.4bn in Jan but still far above the $56.3bn averaged in a tight range through 2024.
• The latter doesn’t appear too surprising, as the surge in Comex gold inventories slowed last month. Gold inventories increased 10% in March after 25% in Feb, 46% in Jan and 19% in Dec. Expect further moderation in this industrial supplies category ahead, with inventories -4% lower in latest data to Apr 25.
• Nominal exports meanwhile increased 1.2% M/M after 3.6% in February, with a firmly mixed bag across categories. The largest saw industrial supplies, which also includes oil, rising 3.0% M/M vs -2.5% for capital goods. 

• March saw a third consecutive blowout for a goods trade deficit relative to expectations, at a record $162.0bn (cons $145bn).
• It follows January’s $153.3bn (cons 116.6) and February’s $147.9bn (cons 139.0) when looking at figures at the time of release.
• The deficit stands at circa 6.2% GDP in Q1 from 4.4% GDP in Q4 and having averaged 4.0% GDP in 2024.
• The US last saw a larger deficit in 3mth % GDP terms (and only just) in the imbalances of 2005-06 ahead of the GFC.
• As there has been much focus on, a large part of this had been down to monetary gold transfers, in part from arbitrage flows, that shouldn’t show up in official GDP data.
• That said, today’s release also shows other signs of significant import strength in likely signs of a ramping up of tariff front-running ahead of the Apr 2 “Liberation Day” announcements that had been well touted ahead of time.
• Nominal imports jumped 5.0% M/M amidst some large conflicting flows but ones that should have negative implications for underlying GDP tracking. It follows -0.2% M/M in Mar and a huge 12.4% M/M in Jan.