COMMODITIES: Move Lower in WTI Futures Allows Overbought Trend to Unwind
The trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish despite the latest pullback. The move down is allowing an overbought trend reading to unwind. The latest strong impulsive climb resulted in a breach of $75.91, the Oct 8 high. Attention is on $79.48, the Apr 12 ‘24 high. A clear break of this hurdle would strengthen the bullish theme and open 80.63, a 3.236 projection of the Nov 18 - 22 - Dec 6 price swing. Support to watch is the 20-day EMA, at $74.20. Gold continues to trade higher this week. The yellow metal has breached resistance at 2726.2, the Dec 12 high and a key short-term resistance. The clear break of this hurdle strengthens a bullish theme and signals scope for an extension near-term. Sights are on $2790.1, the Oct 31 all-time high. On the downside, the first key support to watch is $2660.9, the 50-day EMA. A reversal lower and a breach of this average would reinstate a bearish threat.
- WTI Crude down $0.01 or -0.01% at $75.43
- Natural Gas down $0.01 or -0.13% at $3.957
- Gold spot down $12.45 or -0.45% at $2743.81
- Copper down $3.65 or -0.85% at $426.55
- Silver down $0.29 or -0.94% at $30.5329
- Platinum down $4.77 or -0.5% at $946.48
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FOREX: FX OPTION EXPIRY
Of note:
EURUSD 1.31bn at 1.0400 (fri).
- EURUSD: 1.0400 (590mln).
- USDJPY: 157.00 (431mln).
- USDCNY: 7.2814 (600mln).
GILTS: Testing session low
- The UK 10yr Yield remains higher today, futures underperforms the US Treasuries.
- The Yield managed a 4.651% high this Month, the highest print since November 2023.
- Looking further out, the 2023 high is situated at 4.752%, this was also the highest print since late 2008.
- Today, reference 92.23, would equate to 90.72.
CROSS ASSET: MONTH END EXTENSION (update)
This should be a non event for Year End, they are small, and only the lower liquidity could get Govies moving, but unlikely, as investors turn their attention to 2025.
Bloomberg Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.07yr (small, average).
- EU Govies: +0.04yr (small).
- UK Govies: -0.02yr (non event).
MS Bonds:
- US Tsys: +0.05yr (small).
- EU Govies: +0.03yr (small).
- UK Govies: To contract (non event).
Barclays FX:
- Their Quarter rebalancing model only shows a Weak Dollar Buying signal.
