LOOK AHEAD: Monday Data Calendar
Apr-21 16:39
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- Apr-24 0830 Chicago Fed Nat Activity Index (-0.19, --)
- Apr-24 1000 Revisions: Retail Sales, Inventories
- Apr-24 1030 Dallas Fed Manf. Activity (-15.7, --)
- Apr-24 1130 US Tsy $57B 13W, $48B 26W bill auctions
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: Pulls Lower Pre-Fed
Mar-22 16:36
- RES 4: 117-14+ High Aug 29 / 30 2022 (cont)
- RES 3: 117-00 61.8% of the Aug - Oct 2022 bear leg (cont)
- RES 2: 116-28+ High Jan 19 and key resistance
- RES 1: 115-14+/116-24 High Mar 21 / 20
- PRICE: 114-08 @ 16:29 GMT Mar 22
- SUP 1: 113-26 Low Mar 22
- SUP 2: 113-13 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 112-21 Low Mar 13
- SUP 4: 111-28+ 76.4% retracement of the Mar 2 - 20 rally
Treasury futures printed a lower low at 113-26 ahead of the Wednesday Fed decision, putting prices briefly below 114-01+, the Mar 17 low, although firmer support is seen into 113-13, the 50-day EMA. A break of this average is required to signal a stronger reversal. For bulls, a move higher higher would once again refocus attention on the key resistance zone between 116-24, Monday’s high and 116-28+, the Jan 19 high. This zone is a bull trigger.
US TSY OPTIONS: Jun'23 10Y Call Spd
Mar-22 16:35
- 12,000 TYM 123/127 call spds 4 ref 114-08 to -06.5
US: FRA/OIS Remains Elevated But Far From Unprecedented
Mar-22 16:31
- FRA/OIS at circa 38bps is holding close to the day’s highs in a net climb from 35bps late yesterday.
- That said it remains at the lower end of the range since spiking to almost 70bps on Mar 13. Whilst up from the historically tight 3-5bps shortly before regional banking woes came to the forefront, it still compares favourably to sustained levels >40bps in Oct-Nov’22 approaching and after the last 75bp Fed hike.
[correcting previous post with the clearly wrong CANADA label]
US FRA/OIS 1st roll (white) and 2nd roll (yellow)Source: Bloomberg
