EM CEEMEA CREDIT: MOLHB: FY24 results - marginally weaker
MOL Group (MOLHB: -/BBB-/BBB-) FY4 Results
• Nothing exciting with MOL FY24 results, marginally weaker vs guidance and outlook is for flat growth. Neutral for spreads.
• Reporting FY24 results this morning. Crude processing was slightly below guidance of 12MT. EBITDA was reported at USD3bn inline with guidance, PBT was slightly weaker at USD1.5bn, due to currency and a weaker HUF. Leverage is modest with non-adjusted net debt to EBITDA at 0.74x.
• Guidance for FY25 is for flat growth across production, processing, EBITDA and PBT.
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US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Remains Below The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 2: 109-16+ 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 109-04/109-06 High Jan 21 / High Dec 31
- PRICE: 108-25 @ 11:02 GMT Jan 22
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures remains bearish and the recovery that started Jan 13, appears to be a correction. The contract has traded through the 20-day EMA, at 108-17+. This exposes 109-06, the Dec 31 high, and 109-16+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the 50-day EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low.
EQUITIES: Rolling EU Bank calls
SX7E (21st Mar) vs (20th Jun) 170c, bought the June for 1.05 in 6k.
US: SOFR FIX - 22/01/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.30483
- 3M 4.29664
- 6M 4.26221
- 12M 4.20721
