INDIA: Modi Confirms G7 Attendance, Dispelling Speculation Of Boycott/Non-Invite
Jun-06 13:25
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has confirmed that he has received an invitation to the 15-17 June G7 summit from his Canadian counterpart Mark Carney. Modi says he "looks forward to our meeting at the summit". The invite would appear to have come at late notice, with Bloomberg reporting on 5 June that Modi was set to miss the summit for the first time in six years due to the diplomatic tensions between India and Canada.
- The Bloomberg report claimed that "Indian officials said Modi was unlikely to attend the summit even if invited, as it’s not yet clear how the newly elected Carney government will address India’s concerns about Sikh separatist groups operating in Canada." However, it would appear that either Modi, Carney, or both are willing to set aside the tense state of relations (for now). For Canada, having the leader of the world's most populous country and a major emerging market present will be seen as taking a sensible stance as host. For India, attending the main annual summit for the major Western economies for a sixth year running indicates the South Asian nation's sizeable political and economic presence on the world stage.
- Former Canadian PM Justin Trudeau accused Indian officials of being involved in the assassination of prominent Sikh activist Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a Canadian citizen. India vehemently denied the claims and, in turn, said Trudeau had a 'cavalier' attitude that damaged relations.
- It may be the case that, while Carney hails from the same Liberal party as Trudeau, the fact he is a new leader could allow for a thaw in tensions.
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STIR: SOFR Option Update: Two-Way Puts, Vol Sales
May-07 13:23
- -2,000 SFRZ5 96.43 straddles, 62.0 ref 96.455
- -2,500 SFRH6 96.62 straddles, 80.0 ref 96.655
- +4,000 SFRU5 95.68/95.81/96.00 2x3x1 put flys 1.25 ref 96.15
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- +3,000 SFRM5 SFRM5 95.75/95.81/95.87 put flys, 0.5 ref 95.785
- -5,000 0QU5 95.50/96.00 put spds, 3.0 vs. 96.81/0.08%
EQUITIES: Stoxx600 call buyer
May-07 13:13
SXXP (20th June) 557.5c, bought for 1.6 and 1.7 in ~15k.
ITALY DATA: Weak Retail Sales Momentum Suggests Consumption Drag In Q1
May-07 13:13
Weak Italian retail sales momentum suggests sequential quarterly household consumption growth was tepid - possibly negative – in Q1.
- March nominal retail sales fell 0.5% in March. The three analysts submitting forecasts for the print were between +0.1 and +0.3%. Real sales were also -0.5% M/M, the fifth negative sequential print in the last six months. That dragged 3m/3m growth down to -0.59% (vs -0.42% prior).
- ISTAT retailer confidence has been expansionary throughout the last 3 years, but momentum has been waning in 2025.
- Although the Q1 flash GDP report indicated that domestic demand made a positive contribution to growth, a detailed split across expenditure component was not available.
