JGBS: Modestly Richer At Lunch, After BoJ SoO & BoJ Tamura Speech

ACGBs (YM +3.0 & XM +3.0) are stronger on a local-data-light Sydney session. 

• US equity-index futures have climbed in early Asian trading after President Donald Trump extended a deadline on aggressive European tariffs. Trump agreed to delay the date for a 50% tariff on goods from the European Union to July 9 from June 1.
• US tsy futures (TYM5) have weakened in today’s Asia-Pac dealings, with TYM5 at 109-28, -0-06+ from closing levels. Cash US tsys are closed today for Memorial Day.
• Cash ACGBs are 3bps richer.
• The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +5.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given a 73% probability, with a cumulative 72bps of easing priced by year-end (based on an effective cash rate of 3.84%).
• This week, the AOFM plans to sell A$400mn of the 4.25% 21 June 2034 bond on Tuesday and A$1200mn of the 4.25% 21 March 2036 bond on Friday.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says US regulators may ease the supplementary leverage ratio (SLR) rule this summer, which could encourage banks to boost their Treasury holdings and reduce US Treasury yields.

• Bloomberg - “We are very close to moving” on the so-called supplementary leverage ratio, Bessent said on Bloomberg Television’s Wall Street Week.”
• “Banks have argued the rule, which requires them to hold capital when they trade against their investments in Treasuries, crimps their ability to add to those securities in stressful times, as they are treated in line with much riskier assets. Loosening the rule would encourage them to boost holdings.”
• Changing the SLR is 1 of the tools the Fed has to get US banks to be able to increase their holdings of US bonds.
• Lyn Alden on X : “That's one of the levers they can pull to let banks eat more bonds. It has QE-like effects; positive for liquidity. https://x.com/LynAldenContact/status/1925951076538179967”
• The US bond market is pretty short and leaning quite bearish so should we see something of this nature come to fruition it could have a knee-jerk response lower in yields.
• U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Bloomberg on Friday that the world's largest economy is "going big" on digital assets. 
• “The US Treasury could experience a surge in demand for government debt from the digital asset sector, potentially reaching $2 trillion over the next several years, according to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent. https://news.bitcoin.com/bessent-biden-starved-crypto-trumps-plan-could-flood-treasuries-with-trillions/”
• WSJ - “Big banks including JPMorgan Chase, Bank of America, Citigroup, and Wells Fargo are teaming up to launch a shared crypto stablecoin. https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/some-us-banks-explore-venturing-into-crypto-with-joint-stablecoin-wsj-reports-2025-05-23/”

The RBNZ meets this week when the decision is announced on Wednesday with updated staff forecasts in the Monetary Policy Statement. It will be followed by a press conference which will be Hawkesby’s first as governor. The MPC is widely expected to cut rates 25bp to 3.25% bringing cumulative easing this cycle to 225bp. The OCR profile will be a focus as well as CPI given recent inflation developments.

• April filled job data is also out on Wednesday. It has been showing a gradual improvement in employment growth.
• The May ANZ business survey is released on Thursday and while confidence and the outlook have moderated they remain consistent with the view of a gradual recovery. The price/cost components have been mixed with inflation expectations contained but costs and wage expectations rising.
• Friday sees the May ANZ consumer confidence data released. It recovered sharply in April from the US tariff-impacted March reading, but remains below November/December levels.
• April building permits also print on Friday. They rose 9.6% m/m in March, the third straight increase signalling recovery in the sector.