AUSSIE BONDS: Modestly Cheaper, June Jobs Data Tomorrow

• RES 4: 132.42 2.000 proj of the May 14 - 20 - 22 price swing
• RES 3: 132.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 2: 131.85/95 High Apr 22 and the bull trigger / High Jun 13
• RES 1: 131.29 50.0% retracement of Friday’s range
• PRICE: 130.71 @ 05:44 BST Jun 16
• SUP 1: 130.65 20-day EMA              
• SUP 2: 130.12 Low Jun 5 a key short-term support 
• SUP 3: 129.30 Low May 22   
• SUP 4: 128.97 Low May 14 and a reversal trigger  

A bull cycle in Bund futures remains intact despite Friday’s pullback from its session high. An early rally Friday resulted in a print above key resistance at 131.85, the Apr 22 high and a bull trigger. A clear break of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend that has been in place since Mar 11 and open 132.00 and above. Key short-term support has been defined at 130.12, the Jun 5 low. 

ACGBs (YMU5 -8.0 & XMU5 -9.0) are weaker and hovering at/near Sydney session lows on a data-light day. 

• Cash US tsys are 2-3bps cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session. As we head into the June Fed meeting week, the next cut is only fully priced by the October FOMC meeting, with September seeing a roughly 80% implied probability. Exactly 50bp of cuts are priced through end-2025, implying two Q4 cuts.
• Cash ACGBs are 6-8bps cheaper with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -19bps.
• The bills strip has cheapened, with pricing -2 to -7.
• RBA-dated OIS pricing is firmer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given an 83% probability, with a cumulative 78bps of easing priced by year-end.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will be empty.  The highlight of the week will be May jobs data on Thursday. Bloomberg consensus sees a 20k rise in new jobs, in line with the 3-month average, with the unemployment and participation rates stable at 4.1% and 67.1% respectively.
• The AOFM plans to sell A$300mn of the 4.75% 21 June 2054 bond tomorrow, A$900mn of the 2.75% 21 June 2035 bond on Wednesday and A$800mn of the 1.00% 21 December 2030 bond on Friday.

Despite the Israel - Iran conflict driving volatility across financial markets, there was an even mix of results across major Asian bourses today with the KOSPI one of the best performers.  China's bourses struggled as data released showed the struggle for housing continues.  

• The Hang Seng was down -0.12% and remains lower over the last week.  The CSI 300 followed its lead, lower by -0.06%.  The Shanghai Comp struggled into positive territory rising +0.05% and Shenzhen was the best performer rising +0.34% yet too remains lower over the last week.  
• The KOSPI is strong, up over 1% as is the best performer of the major bourses over the last week.  
• The FTSE Malay KLCI is down -0.27% and the Jakarta Composite flat.  
• The FTSE Straits Times in Singapore is lower by -0.30% and the PSEi in the Philippines lower by -0.56%.
• Having finished Friday down -0.68%, the NIFTY 50 in India is eking out gains Monday rising by +0.20%