MNI US Payrolls Preview: A Pulse Check Amidst Tariff Pessimism

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Executive Summary

• Nonfarm payrolls are seen increasing a seasonally adjusted 140k in March in the Bloomberg survey after 151k in February.
• Primary dealer analysts also see 140k whilst the Bloomberg whisper is just 120k despite an uplift after Wednesday’s stronger than expected ADP report.
• A return of 15k returning strikers and more favorable weather clashes with likely further government layoffs (albeit possibly modest) and broader hiring caution.
• The slide in immigration flows seen in recent months should start to see more focus on longer-run breakeven payrolls pace, with slower payrolls growth seen in relatively better light.
• The unemployment rate is seen holding at 4.1% after a surprise increase in Feb, although at 4.14% it can very easily round higher as some analysts are expecting. Its recent high was 4.23% in Nov whilst the median FOMC participant raised the 4Q25 forecast a tenth higher to 4.4% in last month’s SEP. 
• With the market currently pricing 90bp of cuts for 2025, we feel there could even be a mildly hawkish reaction to an inline print, but it’s a highly fluid situation at the moment.
• There’s only so much impact data can have though whilst forward-looking growth implications from tariffs are still uncertain.
• In the interim, note that Fed Chair Powell provides post-payrolls remarks for the second month running, speaking at 1125ET on the economic outlook at a SABEW conference with prepared remarks and Q&A.