EQUITIES: MNI US EARNINGS SCHEDULE - Pre-Tariff Behaviour in Focus
Apr-10 11:18
- Financials take early focus this earnings season, with JPMorgan, Morgan Stanley, BNY Mellon, Wells Fargo and BlackRock all set to have reported by the end of this week.
- Markets will be particularly focused on any signs of front-loading corporate purchases ahead of expected tariffs, the rate at which firms will passthrough costs to the consumer and the expected impacts of tariffs on the bottom-line for consumer staples.
- Walmart have already this week withdrawn their quarterly income forecast given the uncertainty surrounding tariffs, however also stated that tariffs provide an opportunity to growth market share.
Full quarterly schedule including EPS, revenue expectations and timings here: https://mni.marketnews.com/4cnn1GO
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OPTIONS: Larger FX Option Pipeline
Mar-11 11:18
- EUR/USD: Mar13 $1.0800(E1.3bln), $1.0850-60(E1.2bln)
- USD/JPY: Mar13 Y148.00($1.2bln)
- AUD/USD: Mar14 $0.6125(A$1.1bln)
- USD/CAD: Mar14 C$1.4700($1.2bln)
- USD/CNY: Mar12 Cny7.2000($1.0bln), Cny7.2200($1.0bln)
EQUITIES: EU Bank outright Put Option trade
Mar-11 11:13
SX7E (19th Dec) 185p, sold at 17.30 in 18k vs 8.82k at 187.00
EGBS: Italy Trying To Steer Clear Of Higher Issuance Burdens
Mar-11 11:09
10-year EGB spreads to Bunds have been relatively resilient in the face of increased European defence spending prospects over the past week. Widening pressures have been limited by the German-centric nature of headline flow and prospects for joint-EU funding programmes, which should limit issuance burdens at the sovereign level.
- Spreads have narrowed intraday amid a recovery in European equities and pullback in Bund futures, after the German Green party signalled hopes for a defence spending deal by the end of this week.
- BTPs outperform, with spreads to Bunds ~2.5bps tighter at ~110.5bps. Note that the spread mechanically widened at the end of February owing to a BBG benchmark roll.
- The Italian Government has not fully embraced the prospect of increased borrowing to fund defence spending. This is somewhat unsurprising given Italy is subject to an EU Excessive Deficit Procedure, and so would not want to hamper last year's fiscal consolidation progress.
- Last week, the Government reported a preliminary 2024 budget deficit to GDP ratio of 3.4% - lower than analyst and European Commission projections. Full Q4 2024 (and FY 2024) fiscal data is due on April 4th.
- Bloomberg reported yesterday evening that Italy plans to propose a vehicle that would leverage E16.7bln of public money into E200bln in private investment for strategic defense and aerospace projects. Such a vehicle would thus limit domestic fiscal (and issuance) burdens.
- Meanwhile, last week foreign minister Tajani said that Italy would not use the E150bln of cohesion funds earmarked in the EU’s recent announcement for defence spending - instead wanting to allocate such funds "elsewhere".
