US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Wait For Trump Decision On Iran Continues

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• President Donald Trump has three engagements schedul for his first full day back in Washington. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will deliver her first White House presser since May 9.
• The “sell America” trade is back after Moody’s downgraded the US' credit rating, citing concerns over the Republican fiscal package. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the rating change, saying it is a “lagging indicator”.
• Bessent conceded that consumers are likely to pay some of the cost of tariffs after speaking with the Walmart CEO.
• Trump renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while Bessent indicated the Fed’s position on rates isn’t a determination that tariffs will cause inflation.
• The House Budget Committee advanced the Republican reconciliation bill after four Republican hardliners changed their votes to 'present', signalling they expect alterations to the package in the Rules Committee this week.
• Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is slated to hold a procedural vote on a landmark crypto bill today.
• A call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin today could determine if the US joins the EU in punitive new sanctions on Russia.  
• President Trump’s chief negotiator said Iran must cease all enrichment in a new nuclear accord.
• Vice President JD Vance nixed a plan to travel to Israel due to concerns over Israel's military operation in Gaza.
• Poll of the Day: Trump's strategy of 'flooding the zone' may be working. 

Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF

Tsys have underperformed Bunds and 10-Year gilts over the last couple of hours, with European & UK peers seeing a more meaningful rally from lows after European sovereign & EU supply passed.

• Spread moves probably indicate a willingness to deploy cross-market shorts in Tsys vs. some of the major global counterparts given ongoing U.s. fiscal risks and will also reflect early NY reaction to Friday’s U.S. sovereign rating downgrade from Moody’s.
• Macro headline flow remains subdued thus far on Monday.

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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change. 

Monday 19 May:

• Russia-United States: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are set to hold a telephone call at 1000ET/1500BST/1600CET as the US leader looks to pressure Putin into accepting a 30-day unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine that could be a precursor to a peace agreement. Trump is set to update Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of key NATO members following the call. After failing to agree on a meeting in Istanbul during last week’s Russia-Ukraine talks, there is the prospect a Trump-Putin summit could be in the works.