US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Wait For Trump Decision On Iran Continues
Jun-18 12:34
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- At midday Eastern Time, President Trump is expected to make his first public appearance since the Situation Room meeting yesterday to deliberate on policy regarding Iran. The prevailing view amongst observers is that Trump appears close to authorising limited strategic strikes on Iran's fortified nuclear facilities.
- At 13:00 ET 18:00 BST, Trump will meet with Pakistan Army Chief, Asim Munir, a signal that the Trump administration sees Pakistan as a potential mediator with Iran.
- Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said Iran, "will not surrender".
- Pentagon force posture in the Middle East hints at military action but could also be part of a broader policy of strategic ambiguity.
- The Trump administration’s response to Iran is complicated by a growing schism between the MAGA isolationists and traditional conservatives in Trump's coalition.
- Only 16% of Americans think the US military should get involved in the conflict between, according to YouGov.
- Iran retains the capacity to strike US assets in the Middle East, roil oil markets, and disrupt commercial shipping routes.
- Vice President JD Vance said Congress is “in a good place” to get the Big Beautiful Bill to Trump’s desk by July 4.
- The CBO released a new “dynamic” score that estimates the OBBB would increase budget deficits by as much as USD$2.8 trillion.
- The Senate passed landmark legislation that establishes the first regulatory framework for stablecoins.
- Poll of the Day: The OBBB gets a lukewarm reception from voters.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Big Beautiful Bill Clears Another Hurdle
May-19 12:29
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- President Donald Trump has three engagements schedul for his first full day back in Washington. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt will deliver her first White House presser since May 9.
- The “sell America” trade is back after Moody’s downgraded the US' credit rating, citing concerns over the Republican fiscal package. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent downplayed the rating change, saying it is a “lagging indicator”.
- Bessent conceded that consumers are likely to pay some of the cost of tariffs after speaking with the Walmart CEO.
- Trump renewed his attack on Fed Chair Jerome Powell, while Bessent indicated the Fed’s position on rates isn’t a determination that tariffs will cause inflation.
- The House Budget Committee advanced the Republican reconciliation bill after four Republican hardliners changed their votes to 'present', signalling they expect alterations to the package in the Rules Committee this week.
- Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) is slated to hold a procedural vote on a landmark crypto bill today.
- A call between Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin today could determine if the US joins the EU in punitive new sanctions on Russia.
- President Trump’s chief negotiator said Iran must cease all enrichment in a new nuclear accord.
- Vice President JD Vance nixed a plan to travel to Israel due to concerns over Israel's military operation in Gaza.
- Poll of the Day: Trump's strategy of 'flooding the zone' may be working.
Full Article: US DAILY BRIEF
BONDS: Tsys Wider Vs. Peers
May-19 12:27
Tsys have underperformed Bunds and 10-Year gilts over the last couple of hours, with European & UK peers seeing a more meaningful rally from lows after European sovereign & EU supply passed.
- Spread moves probably indicate a willingness to deploy cross-market shorts in Tsys vs. some of the major global counterparts given ongoing U.s. fiscal risks and will also reflect early NY reaction to Friday’s U.S. sovereign rating downgrade from Moody’s.
- Macro headline flow remains subdued thus far on Monday.
GLOBAL POLITICAL RISK: Week Ahead 19-25 May
May-19 12:25
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(MNI) London – All timings are subject to change.
Monday 19 May:
- Russia-United States: Presidents Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump are set to hold a telephone call at 1000ET/1500BST/1600CET as the US leader looks to pressure Putin into accepting a 30-day unconditional ceasefire in Ukraine that could be a precursor to a peace agreement. Trump is set to update Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and the leaders of key NATO members following the call. After failing to agree on a meeting in Istanbul during last week’s Russia-Ukraine talks, there is the prospect a Trump-Putin summit could be in the works.
