US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - Johnson Eyes Vote On GOP Megabill Today
May-21 12:24
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- President Donald Trump will hold a bilateral meeting with South African President Cyril Ramaphosa today amid a diplomatic spat with the largest economy in Africa.
- House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) appears to have reached compromise agreements with House GOP conservatives and SALT Republicans that could unlock a vote on the ‘One Big Beautiful’ reconciliation bill as soon as today.
- The potential vote comes amid warnings from markets and analysts that the fiscal package will balloon US debt. We have a full rundown of how voting is likely to play out inside.
- The G7 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors' meeting gets underway in Canada today, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expected to hold sideline meetings with his counterparts from the UK and Japan.
- Secretary of State Marco Rubio is on Capitol Hill again for a second day of testimony on Trump’s fiscal year 2026 budget request. Rubio told a Senate panel yesterday that Russia has pledged to send the US their terms for a ceasefire with Ukraine.
- President Trump yesterday unveiled more details plans for his so-called “Golden Dome” missile defense shield, saying it will be completed by the end of his term.
- Oil prices jumped following a report from CNN that Israel is preparing for a potential strike on Iranian nuclear facilities.
- Poll of the Day: Trump’s approval is lagging on issues considered the most important by US voters.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Apr-21 12:11
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.32% (+0.01), volume: $2.505T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.31% (+0.01), volume: $1.047T
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TCR): 4.31% (+0.01), volume: $1.016T
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US TSY OPTIONS: Early Treasury Option Roundup
Apr-21 11:56
Mixed Treasury option flow gradually picking up ahead the NY open, light overnight trade with Europe closed for Easter Monday. Underlying futures extending lows, curves twisting steeper with short end resisting sell-off, 2s10s +9.053 at 61.299. Despite this morning's sell-off, projected rate hike pricing gain slightly vs. Thursday levels (*) as follows: May'25 at -3.4bp (-2.7bp), Jun'25 at -19.0bp (-17.6bp), Jul'25 at -40.1bp (-38.6bp), Sep'25 -59.9bp (-57.4bp).
- Treasury Options:
- 4,000 TYK5 109.5/111 put spds vs. 111/111.5 call spds ref 110-30
- 2,000 TYK5 110.75/111.5 strangles 30 ref 110-29.5
- 1,500 FVM5 108.5/109 call spds, 14.5 ref 108-16.5
- over 7,400 TYM5 114 calls, 14 last
- over 6,000 TYK5 110.75 puts 18 last
- over 9,900 TYK5 110 puts, partly tied to 109/110 2x1 put spds
- 2,500 wk2 TY 112 calls ref 111-06
US TSY FUTURES: Extending Lows
Apr-21 11:11
- Futures extending lows again, sellers meet limited buy interest, low overall volumes volumes at Jun'25 10Y trades down to 110-30 (-7.5), total volume just over 151k. 10Y yield climbs to 4.3676% (+.0427).
- Initial Technical support below at 110-15/109-08 (Low Apr 15 / 11 and the bear trigger); Continued weakness would refocus attention on 109-08, the Apr 11 low. A break of this level would resume the downtrend.
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