MNI POLITICAL RISK ANALYSIS - Poland Election Preview

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Poland will hold the first round of the presidential election on May 18, with the widely anticipated run-off between top two candidates expected on June 1.

• The head of state has many ceremonial functions, but is also equipped with a strong veto power, with the bar for its overruling by parliament set relatively high.
• Opinion polling and betting market data suggest that government ally Rafał Trzaskowski holds a lead over his closest rival Karol Nawrocki.
• Trzaskowski’s victory would give the government more leeway to implement its agenda, while Nawrocki’s win would prolong the existing political deadlock.
• Exit polls after the first round will be published once the election silence period expires alongside the closure of polling stations at 20:00BST/21:00CEST.

In this election preview, we provide a briefing on how the election works and the broader political backdrop of this particular poll, a list of main candidates, a scenario analysis examining the probabilities and implications of various outcomes, alongside latest opinion polling and betting market data ahead of the vote.