GROWTH (BBG): “Rachel Reeves will pump billions of pounds into areas outside London as the Labour government tries to head off an electoral threat posed by Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.”
HOUSE PRICES (BBG): “ A closely watched index of UK property prices declined to its lowest in almost a year, suggesting the housing market remains under pressure after a tax break for buyers expired.”
EU (POLITICO): “Britain and the EU have agreed a fresh Brexit deal that will see Gibraltar open its borders with Spain, abolish passport controls with the EU, and join the EU customs union.”
EU
TRADE (BBG): “Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said the European Union is likely to be among the last deals that the US completes, as the administration rushes to secure tariff agreements with other trading partners.”
UKRAINE (POLITICO): ““Russia is simply lying to Trump,” Zelenskyy said in a Wednesday interview with the Axel Springer Global Reporters network, of which POLITICO is a member. “Most heads of state and government share my opinion, and I very much hope that America sees and understands this.”
US
MIDDLE EAST (RTRS): “U.S. President Donald Trump on Wednesday said U.S. personnel were being moved out of the Middle East because "it could be a dangerous place," adding that the United States would not allow Iran to have a nuclear weapon.”
US/IRAN (RTRS): “U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff plans to meet Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Oman on Sunday and discuss Iran's response to a recent American proposal for a nuclear deal, a U.S. official said late on Wednesday.”
TARIFFS (BBG): “President Donald Trump said he intended to send letters to trading partners in the next one to two weeks setting unilateral tariff rates, ahead of a July 9 deadline to reimpose higher duties on dozens of economies.”
FISCAL (MNI BRIEF): The U.S. government posted a USD316 billion budget deficit for May, a decline compared to the same month last year reflecting a 15% jump in tax receipts, while the fiscal year-to-date deficit continued to widen to USD1.365 trillion through the first eight months of the year, the Treasury Department said Wednesday.
INFLATION (MNI BRIEF): U.S. CPI headline and core inflation cooled to 0.081% and 0.130%, respectively, in May, lower than analysts expected, as core goods prices saw deflation and core services inflation softened, the Bureau of Labor Statistics said Wednesday. The 12-month rate for headline and core CPI both were a tenth below forecast at 2.4% and 2.8%, respectively.
JOBS (MNI INTERVIEW): Recent signs of softening in the U.S. job market will likely not provide enough justification for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts this year due to concerns that increased tariffs will prompt a resurgence of inflation, ADP chief economist Nela Richardson told MNI.
OTHER
CANADA (MNI BRIEF): Prime Minister Mark Carney has the support needed to complete big infrastructure projects even as Canada's provinces signal resistance to new energy routes, a former minister and an ex-prime ministerial trade adviser told MNI.
AUSTRALIA/US (RTRS): “Australia's Defence Minister Richard Marles said on Thursday he was confident the AUKUS submarine pact with the U.S. and Britain would proceed, and his government would work closely with the U.S. while the Trump administration conducted a formal review.”
JAPAN (BBG): "Japan’s largest businesses turned pessimistic for the first time in more than a year as Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs upended key sectors, a development that could complicate the Bank of Japan’s policy path."
CHINA
US/CHINA (RTRS): “President Donald Trump said on Wednesday the U.S. deal with China is done, with Beijing to supply magnets and rare earth minerals while the U.S. will allow Chinese students in its colleges and universities. "WE ARE GETTING A TOTAL OF 55% TARIFFS, CHINA IS GETTING 10%. RELATIONSHIP IS EXCELLENT!" Trump wrote on Truth Social without elaborating.
US/CHINA (PEOPLE’S DAILY): “China and the U.S. will take practical actions using the existing negotiation mechanism to jointly safeguard the hard-earned results of the recent dialogue, said the party-run People’s Daily in a commentary.”
STOCKS (21st CENTURY BUSINESS HERALD): “Shenzhen authorities will allow Hong Kong-listed enterprises operating in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area, to list on the city's stock exchange, encouraging the return of large red-chip companies and attracting overseas investment in mainland tech companies, said Liu Jianing, a researcher at the Guangdong Academy of Social Sciences.”
DEBT (SHANGHAI SECURITIES NEWS): “ A total of over 4 trillion yuan ($556b) worth of negotiable certificates of deposit (NCD) in China’s interbank market is maturing this month, adding to the liabilities pressure of the banking system, Shanghai Securities News reported.’
MNI: PBOC Net Drains CNY7.2 Bln via OMO Thursday
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) conducted CNY119.3 billion via 7-day reverse repos, with the rate unchanged at 1.40%. The operation led to a net drain of CNY7.2 billion after offsetting the maturity of CNY126.5 reverse repo today, according to Wind Information.
The seven-day weighted average interbank repo rate for depository institutions (DR007) fell to 1.4650% at 09:33 am local time from the close of 1.5276% on Wednesday.
The CFETS-NEX money-market sentiment index, measuring interbank money-market liquidity, closed at 47 on Wednesday, compared with the close of 49 on Tuesday. A higher reading points to tighter liquidity condition, with 50 representing an equilibrium.
MNI (BEIJING) - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the dollar-yuan central parity rate lower at 7.1803 on Thursday, compared with 7.1815 set on Wednesday. The fixing was estimated at 7.1738 by Bloomberg survey today.
MARKET DATA
UK MAY RICS HOUSE PRICE BALANCE -8; APR. -3 UK MAY RICS HOUSE BUYER DEMAND -26; APR. -32
AUSTRALIA MI CONSUMER INFLATION EXPECTATIONS JUNE 5.0%; MAY 4.1%
NEW ZEALAND MAY TOTAL CARD SPENDING +0.3% M/M; APR. -0.2% NEW ZEALAND MAY RETAIL CARD SPENDING -0.2% M/M; APR 0.0%
JAPAN Q2 BSI LARGE MANUFACTURER CONFIDENCE -4.8 PPT Q/Q; Q1 -2.4 JAPAN Q2 BSI LARGE ALL-INDUSTRY CONFIDENCE -1.9 PPT Q/Q; Q1 +2.0
JAPAN TOKYO MAY OFFICE VACANCIES FALL TO 3.56%; APR. 3.73%
(Bloomberg) - Given the softer-than-expected May CPI report, investors are turning their focus to the forward reflationary impact of tariffs and long-end supply. The convergence of those factors points to continued steepening of the yield curve.
“JD Vance said the Fed’s refusal to cut rates is “monetary malpractice.”(BBG)
“Bessent: Removing SLR in Past Had Substantial Yield Effect.”(BBG)
The 10-year yield has fallen overnight and could go back to test its 4.30/35% support, this area needs to hold if the shorts are to get their wish of a push higher in yields.
JGB futures (JBU5) are stronger, +8 compared to settlement levels, hovering near Tokyo session highs.
Japan’s bond futures had initially weakened after today’s enhanced liquidity auction of 15.5 - 39-year JGBs, but quickly reversed direction.
(Bloomberg) -- Japan’s super-long bonds face the risk of higher volatility from rising foreign holdings, just as demand is absent from local life insurers, according to Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities. Foreign investors can sell to take profit when yields drop, and they can also choose to sell to cut losses, macro strategist Koichi Sugisaki told reporters at a briefing in Tokyo on Thursday.
“Given that Ishiba could hold a summit with US President Donald Trump in Canada, he met with other party leaders to hear their opinions.” (BBG)
Cash US tsys are ~2bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session with Middle East tensions in focus. US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran. Investors will also be closely watching demand at today’s $22bn sale of 30-year bonds amid souring demand for that tenor.
Cash JGBs are modestly richer across benchmarks, with the 5-year leading.
Swap rates are ~1bp lower, with swap spreads wider.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see IP, Capu and Tertiary Industry data.
ACGBs (YM +5.0 & XM +5.0) remain stronger after dealing in narrow ranges in today's data-light Sydney session.
(MNI) There has been a moderate improvement in housing affordability with prices soft in Q4 and Q1, a strong rise in Q1 disposable income and mortgage rates lower, which should fall further with more RBA easing expected.
However, affordability remains 40% below trend, only slight progress from the worst at 42.8% in Q3 2024. Structural issues in the sector persist.
Cash US tsys are ~2bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session with Middle East tensions in focus.
Cash ACGBs are 5bps richer with the AU-US 10-year yield differential at -18bps.
The bills strip has bull-flattened, with pricing +1 to +6.
RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-7bps softer across meetings today. A 25bp rate cut in July is given an 82% probability, with a cumulative 76bps of easing priced by year-end.
Today, the local calendar was empty. A speech from RBA Jacobs, Head of Domestic Markets Department - Australia's Bond Market in a Volatile World - at the Australian Government Fixed Income Forum, Tokyo (1720 AEST).
NZGBs closed showing a bull-flattener, with benchmark yields 1-5bps lower, after soft retail card data.
NZ card transactions remained soft in May with retail sales falling 0.2% m/m to be up 0.2% y/y after -0.6% y/y helped by positive base effects. Although the RBNZ doesn’t have a bias with rates in the neutral range, it is monitoring data and events very closely, and this release is signalling weak Q2 consumption.
Today’s supply was greeted with solid bid-to-cover ratios: 4.30x (May-30) and 3.22x (May-36).
Nevertheless, the NZ-US 10-year yield differentials closed 2bps wider. At +17bps, the differential sits in the top half of the -20bp to +40bps range seen this year.
Cash US tsys are ~2bps richer in today's Asia-Pac session with Middle East tensions in focus. US officials have been told Israel is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran.
Swap rates closed showing a twist-flattener, with rates 1bp higher to 1bp lower.
RBNZ dated OIS pricing closed flat to 2bps softer across meetings, with early 2026 leading. 4bps of easing is priced for July, with a cumulative 27bps by November 2025.
Tomorrow, the local calendar will see BusinessNZ Manufacturing PMI data, ahead of the Performance Services Index on Monday.
The BBDXY has had a range of 1203.48 - 1205.99 in the Asia-Pac session, it is currently trading around 1204. CBS - “Israel informed U.S. officials that it is fully ready to launch an operation into Iran”. The USD has extended its losses in Asia and is testing some long term levels against a broad basket of currencies.
EUR/USD - Asian range 1.1487 - 1.1529, Asia is currently trading 1.1515. EUR has continued to push higher during the Asian session in response to the move lower in US stocks. Dips should continue to find demand, first support around 1.1400 then the 1.1100/1200 area. EUR/USD is challenging the pivotal 1.1500 area, a sustained break could signal a larger move higher. see graph below.
GBP/USD - Asian range 1.3547 - 1.3593, Asia is currently dealing around 1.3580. The GBP found solid demand towards 1.3450 and is now again attempting to gain some momentum to push above the pivotal 1.3500/1.3600 weekly pivot.
USD/CNH - Asian range 7.1804 - 7.2002, the USD/CNY fix printed 7.1803. Asia is currently dealing around 7.1850. Sellers should be around on bounces while price holds below the 7.2500 area.
The Asia-Pac USD/JPY range has been 143.73 - 144.56, Asia is currently trading around 144.00. USD/JPY has been under pressure for most of the Asian session as US yields and Stocks both continue to drift lower.
Local Investors Dump Offshore Equities: The most notable feature of last week's investment flows was strong selling by local Japan investors of offshore equities. At nearly -1.5trln in net selling, it was the largest outflow from this segment since early Nov 2022. It also marked the fourth straight week of selling for offshore equities.
(Bloomberg) - “Pimco said long-dated JGBs look “really interesting” as a tactical trade after 30-year yields topped 3.2% for the first time in May.”
Overnight USD/JPY collapsed after the CPI print and has continued to trade heavy in our session straight from the open. With US yields under pressure and the risk backdrop souring you would think the path of least resistance would be a move lower.
Price is back in its recent 142.00 - 147.00 range and will need a break either side of that to get a clearer direction. Price action does suggest 142.00 is likely to be tested first.
Options : Close significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 143.00($1.28bm). Upcoming Close Strikes : 144.00($1.27b June 13), 145.00($4.87b June 16).
The AUD/USD has had a range of 0.6484 - 0.6511 in the Asia- Pac session, it is currently trading around 0.6500. The AUD has been under pressure for most of our session as the move higher in risk seems to be stalling. Some good demand was seen today back towards the 0.6480 area once more. The AUD/USD is struggling for direction as the USD continues to be put under pressure at the same time, the AUD though is a clear underperformer against the crosses.
RBA: VIEW: Softer Inflation Outlook Drives Westpac’s Rate Forecast Down. While Westpac continues to expect the RBA to be on hold in July with the next cut in August coinciding with updated staff forecasts, it is now forecasting the trough in the cash rate at 2.85% in May although it could be March if inflation and the labour market disappoint.
“The arguments in favor of doing more than 50bps more (two cuts) are building. In particular, the outlook for inflation is shifting in the face of slowing population growth and a handover from public to private sector demand growth that is looking shakier”
“It is possible that some of these cuts come a bit faster than the ‘cautious’ path we currently have penciled in”
The AUD continues to see demand just below the 0.6500 area, but the inability to break above 0.6550 on multiple occasions will have the bulls a little concerned.
Price remains in the 0.6350 - 0.6550 range, a sustained break above 0.6550 is needed for the move higher to accelerate.
Expect buyers to continue to be around on dips while the support in the AUD holds, a close back below 0.6350 is needed to challenge the newly formed uptrend. AUD underperformance continues to be better expressed against the crosses.
Options : Closest significant option expiries for NY cut, based on DTCC data: 0.6600(AUD643m). Upcoming Close Strikes : 0.6500(AUD 447m June 13), 0.6450(AUD426m June 16)
AUD/JPY - Today's range 93.31 - 94.06, it is trading currently around 93.60. Price has turned quickly lower again with the first whiff of risk turning down. We are back below the level it was trading pre NFP, if this pair closes down here it will put in a lower high. A break back below 91.50/92.00 is needed to reignite the momentum lower.
The NZD/USD had a range of 0.6016 - 0.6040 in the Asia-Pac session, going into the London open trading around 0.6035. The NZD has bounced off support back towards the 0.6000 area as the USD remains under big pressure. The NZD/USD is struggling for direction as risk is turning lower at the same time, the crosses look a better place to express the NZD underperformance.
Soft Q2 Retail Card Transactions. NZ card transactions remained soft in May with retail sales falling 0.2% m/m to be up 0.2% y/y after -0.6% y/y helped by positive base effects. While the total rose 0.3% m/m, it had declined the previous four months, and is now up 0.2% y/y. The 3-month momentum deteriorated for both series. Although the RBNZ doesn’t have a bias with rates in the neutral range, it is monitoring data and events very closely and this release is signalling weak Q2 consumption.
Westpac Sees Gradual Consumption Recovery Later In 2025. Westpac notes that spending has moved sideways over the last three months but expects it to improve over H2 2025 with mortgages rolling over improving disposable incomes but the recovery in consumption is still likely to be gradual.
The NZD’s inability to accelerate above 0.6050 has seen the move higher stall in the short term, first support is seen back towards the 0.5950 area. The NZD underperformance is being seen in the crosses.
While the support around 0.5850 holds there should be buyers around on dips. A clear break above 0.6050/0.6100 is needed to provide the spark for the next leg higher.
AUD/NZD range for the session has been 1.0769 - 1.0794, currently trading 1.0770. A top looks in place now just above 1.0900, the cross topped out on Monday towards the 1.0800/25 sell area, the first target looks to be around 1.0650.
Asian equities are mixed in the first part of Thursday trade. Aggregate moves are not beyond 1% at this stage, with pockets of strength and weakness evident in both North East and South East Asia.
US equity futures are weaker since markets re-opened. Eminis were last down around 0.30%. We saw a brief dip sub the 6000 level, but that was supported. Earlier headlines from US President Trump that he will decide on unilateral tariff rates within the next two weeks has been a headwind for sentiment. Some sell-side analysts see this a negotiating tactic to hasten trade deals. Trump added (via RTRS): "He said the U.S. would send out letters in one to two weeks outlining the terms of trade deals to dozens of other countries, which they could embrace or reject."
The other focus point for markets is Middle East tensions, with US personnel being moved out of parts of the Middle East, including Iraq. Iran threatens to target US bases if nuclear talks fail, heightening fears of military conflict, Reuters said.
Japan markets are down modestly, the Topix off 0.20%, the NKY 225 down 0.50%, with a firmer yen backdrop evident on market risk aversion.
The Hang Seng is down around 0.50%, while the CSI 300 is close to flat in onshore China markets.
The Kospi continues its outperformance, the benchmark index up a further 0.80%, which is fresh highs back to early 2022 (last near 2930). Optimism remains strong around new President Lee's ambitions to boost value, while the BOK is also encouraging fresh fiscal stimulus, stating it won't impact inflation.
In Taiwan, the Taiex is off around 0.65%, ending a recent strong run higher.
In SEA, we are seeing weakness in Thailand and Indonesian stocks. Consumer sentiment readings for both economies fell in May, while in Thailand growth concerns remain amid the tariff threat and slower tourism backdrop. The SET was last down around 0.55%.
Oil has held onto most of Wednesday’s gain declining only slightly during today’s APAC session. WTI is down 0.3% to $67.92/bbl following a low of $67.62, while Brent is -0.4% to $69.49/bbl after falling to $69.22, back below resistance at $70.08. The USD index is down 0.3% providing some support to dollar-denominated crude.
Oil prices surged on Wednesday driven by the lower-than-expected May US CPI, likely US-China trade deal, a large US crude drawdown and rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. The US has reduced staff at its Iraqi embassy in the face of threats from Iran to attack US bases in the Middle East if there is a conflict.
While President Trump doesn’t think he can persuade Iran to give up on its nuclear ambitions, talks are due to continue in Oman on Sunday. Iran is believed to be preparing a new proposal ahead of the summit. An easing in tensions would likely see a material decline in oil prices.
The market is focusing on trade tensions again, which it has feared for some time would weigh on global energy demand. Trump said that tariff letters with unilateral duties would be sent in the next fortnight, which has increased trade nerves. The current delay ends on July 8.
US May PPI & jobless claims and UK April IP/GDP print. ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel and Elderson speak.
Gold prices rose a further 0.5% to $3372.2/oz as geopolitical worries continued to drive safe haven flows. They are off the intraday high of $3377.82, which remained below resistance at $3403.5. The weaker US dollar (USD BBDXY -0.3%) and yields continued to support non-interest bearing gold after data showed lower-than-expected US inflation in May.
The US withdrawal of some of its embassy staff in Baghdad due to security concerns and President Trump’s statement that tariff letters would be sent in the next fortnight drove an increase in flight-to-quality flows.
Silver is up 0.3% to $36.36, in line with today’s move in bullion and close to the intraday high of $34.40. Initial resistance is at $36.89, 9 June high.
Equities have been mixed today with KOSPI up 0.8%, CSI 300 flat but Hang Seng down 0.5% and S&P e-mini -0.3%. Oil prices are lower with WTI -0.3% to $67.93/bbl and copper is up 0.1%.
Later the focus will be on the 30-year US Treasury auction with a face value of $22bn. Weak demand will signal reduced confidence in longer-dated US debt and likely increase flows into gold. The US’ fiscal position in the face of tax cuts has worried markets recently.
US May PPI & jobless claims and UK April IP/GDP print. ECB’s de Guindos, Schnabel and Elderson speak.
UP TODAY (TIMES GMT/LOCAL)
Date
GMT/Local
Impact
Country
Event
12/06/2025
0600/0700
**
GB
UK Monthly GDP
12/06/2025
0600/0700
**
GB
Trade Balance
12/06/2025
0600/0700
**
GB
Index of Services
12/06/2025
0600/0700
***
GB
Index of Production
12/06/2025
0600/0700
**
GB
Output in the Construction Industry
12/06/2025
0900/1100
EU
ECB Schnabel Visits "House of the Euro"
12/06/2025
-
***
CN
Money Supply
12/06/2025
-
***
CN
New Loans
12/06/2025
-
***
CN
Social Financing
12/06/2025
1200/1400
EU
ECB de Guindos At Financial Integration Conference